Predicting Tobacco and Alcohol Initiation

描述（由申请人提供）：本研究评估了多属性效用，一种主观期望效用的修正，作为青少年决定开始吸烟或饮酒的描述性模型。根据该模型，年轻的决策者设想了遵循这两个决策选项的一系列后果，要么继续不使用，要么开始使用。每个结果都有三个组成部分。这些成分是结果的价值，可能是积极的或消极的，判断结果发生的可能性，以及结果的重要性。对于给定的结果，这些主观成分的价值会因个体而异，尤其是那些重要性。对于个人而言，重要性也会随着情绪或环境的变化而变化，这就是该模型如何解释在社会环境中可能发生的冲动决定。该模型要求对三个组成部分的乘积求和，因此，如果结果的任何组成部分很小，则该结果对决策的贡献很小。该模型将通过从七年级早期的一大群学生中引出通常独立的结果来测试。还将审查目前的使用情况；现有数据表明，到那时，大多数学生将不再使用手机。众所周知，相当数量的启蒙发生在七年级和八年级。假设是，那些模型得分高的非用户比得分低的非用户更有可能开始使用。18个月后，同样的学生将被问及使用情况，以评估该假设。现在大家都知道，关于吸毒有害影响的不同知识并不能区分青少年使用者和非使用者。模型方法量化了预期的积极后果在那些选择启动的人的决定中发挥突出作用的想法。一个重要的含义是，预防运动可以通过处理使用的积极和消极后果而获益。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This study evaluates multi-attribute utility, a modification of subjective expected utility, as a descriptive model of the adolescent's decision to initiate smoking or alcohol use. According to the model, the young decision maker envisions a set of consequences that will follow the two decision options, either to continue as a nonuser or to initiate usage. Each consequence has three components. The components are the worth of the consequence, which may be positive or negative, the judged likelihood that the consequence will happen, and the importance of the consequence. For a given consequence, the values of these subjective components will vary across individuals, especially those for importances. Within an individual, importances will also change with mood or circumstance, which is how the model accounts for impulsive decisions that may occur in social settings. The model calls for summing the products of the three components, so if any component of a consequence is small, that consequence contributes little to the decision. The model will be tested by eliciting components often independent consequences from a large group of students early in the seventh-grade year. Current usage will also be examined; extant data suggest that most students will be non-users at that time. It is known that a fair amount of initiation takes place during the seventh and eighth grade years. The hypothesis is that those non-users whose model scores are high will be more likely to initiate usage than those whose scores are low. The same students will be queried regarding usage eighteen months later to evaluate the hypothesis. It is now well known that differential knowledge regarding the harmful effects of drug use does not distinguish adolescent users from non-users. The model approach quantifies the idea that anticipated positive consequences play a prominent role in the decision of those who choose to initiate. An important implication is that prevention campaigns might profit by addressing positive as well as negative consequences of usage.