Predicting Tobacco and Alcohol Initiation

描述(由申请人提供)：这项研究评估了多属性效用，即主观预期效用的修改，作为青少年开始吸烟或饮酒决定的描述性模型。根据该模型，年轻的决策者设想了两个决策选项之后的一系列后果，要么继续作为非用户使用，要么开始使用。每种后果都有三个组成部分。这些成分是结果的价值，可以是积极的，也可以是消极的，判断的结果发生的可能性，以及结果的重要性。对于一个给定的结果，这些主观因素的值会因个人而异，特别是那些重要的因素。在个人内部，重要性也会随着情绪或环境的变化而变化，这就是该模型如何解释社交环境中可能发生的冲动决定。该模型要求将三个组成部分的乘积相加，因此，如果一个结果的任何一个组成部分很小，该结果对决策的贡献就很小。该模型将通过从七年级初的一大群学生那里得出通常是独立的结果来进行测试。目前的使用情况也将被检查；现有的数据表明，大多数学生届时将是非用户。众所周知，相当数量的入会发生在七年级和八年级。假设是，那些模型得分高的非用户比那些得分低的非用户更有可能发起使用。18个月后，同样的学生将被询问有关用法的问题，以评估假设。现在众所周知，对吸毒有害影响的不同认识并不能区分青少年吸毒者和非吸毒者。模型方法量化了这样一种观点，即预期的积极结果在那些选择发起的人的决策中发挥着突出的作用。一个重要的含义是，预防运动可能会通过解决使用的积极和消极后果而受益。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This study evaluates multi-attribute utility, a modification of subjective expected utility, as a descriptive model of the adolescent's decision to initiate smoking or alcohol use. According to the model, the young decision maker envisions a set of consequences that will follow the two decision options, either to continue as a nonuser or to initiate usage. Each consequence has three components. The components are the worth of the consequence, which may be positive or negative, the judged likelihood that the consequence will happen, and the importance of the consequence. For a given consequence, the values of these subjective components will vary across individuals, especially those for importances. Within an individual, importances will also change with mood or circumstance, which is how the model accounts for impulsive decisions that may occur in social settings. The model calls for summing the products of the three components, so if any component of a consequence is small, that consequence contributes little to the decision. The model will be tested by eliciting components often independent consequences from a large group of students early in the seventh-grade year. Current usage will also be examined; extant data suggest that most students will be non-users at that time. It is known that a fair amount of initiation takes place during the seventh and eighth grade years. The hypothesis is that those non-users whose model scores are high will be more likely to initiate usage than those whose scores are low. The same students will be queried regarding usage eighteen months later to evaluate the hypothesis. It is now well known that differential knowledge regarding the harmful effects of drug use does not distinguish adolescent users from non-users. The model approach quantifies the idea that anticipated positive consequences play a prominent role in the decision of those who choose to initiate. An important implication is that prevention campaigns might profit by addressing positive as well as negative consequences of usage.