Predicting Tobacco and Alcohol Initiation

预测吸烟和饮酒的开始

• 批准号: 7140231
• 负责人: Jie W Weiss
• 金额: $ 16.48万
• 依托单位: CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY FULLERTON
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2005-08-01 至 2010-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7140231
• 关键词: adolescence (12-20); alcoholism /alcohol abuse; behavioral /social science research tag; clinical research; decision making; health behavior; human subject; longitudinal human study; model design /development; psychological models; smoking; substance abuse related behavior; tobacco abuse

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This study evaluates multi-attribute utility, a modification of subjective expected utility, as a descriptive model of the adolescent's decision to initiate smoking or alcohol use. According to the model, the young decision maker envisions a set of consequences that will follow the two decision options, either to continue as a nonuser or to initiate usage. Each consequence has three components. The components are the worth of the consequence, which may be positive or negative, the judged likelihood that the consequence will happen, and the importance of the consequence. For a given consequence, the values of these subjective components will vary across individuals, especially those for importances. Within an individual, importances will also change with mood or circumstance, which is how the model accounts for impulsive decisions that may occur in social settings. The model calls for summing the products of the three components, so if any component of a consequence is small, that consequence contributes little to the decision. The model will be tested by eliciting components often independent consequences from a large group of students early in the seventh-grade year. Current usage will also be examined; extant data suggest that most students will be non-users at that time. It is known that a fair amount of initiation takes place during the seventh and eighth grade years. The hypothesis is that those non-users whose model scores are high will be more likely to initiate usage than those whose scores are low. The same students will be queried regarding usage eighteen months later to evaluate the hypothesis. It is now well known that differential knowledge regarding the harmful effects of drug use does not distinguish adolescent users from non-users. The model approach quantifies the idea that anticipated positive consequences play a prominent role in the decision of those who choose to initiate. An important implication is that prevention campaigns might profit by addressing positive as well as negative consequences of usage.

描述（由申请人提供）：本研究评估了多属性效用，主观预期效用的修改，作为青少年决定开始吸烟或饮酒的描述性模型。根据这个模型，年轻的决策者设想了一系列的后果，将遵循两个决策选项，要么继续作为一个非用户或启动使用。每个后果都有三个组成部分。这些组成部分是后果的价值，可能是积极的或消极的，判断后果发生的可能性，以及后果的重要性。对于一个给定的结果，这些主观成分的值将因个体而异，特别是那些重要性。在个人内部，重要性也会随着情绪或环境而变化，这就是模型解释社交环境中可能发生的冲动决定的方式。该模型要求对三个分量的乘积求和，因此如果结果的任何分量都很小，则该结果对决策的贡献很小。该模型将通过从七年级早期的一大群学生中引出通常独立的结果来进行测试。目前的使用情况也将进行检查;现有的数据表明，大多数学生将非用户在那个时候。众所周知，相当多的启蒙活动发生在七年级和八年级。我们的假设是，那些模型得分高的非用户将更有可能启动使用比那些得分低。同样的学生将在18个月后被询问使用情况，以评估假设。现在众所周知，对吸毒有害影响的不同认识并不能区分青少年吸毒者和非吸毒者。模型方法量化的想法，预期的积极后果发挥了突出的作用，在那些选择启动的决定。一个重要的含义是，预防运动可能会受益于解决使用的积极和消极后果。