Probabilistic assessment of structural integrity of composite components in offshore wind energy

研究表明，大量海上风力发电机（WTGs）将在2030年之前达到其型式认证设计寿命的终点（Adedipe和Shafiee 2021），随着近年来增加海上风能装机容量以实现净零目标并提高能源安全性的推动，EoL决策将变得越来越重要。正如Middelgrunden和hr1 owf所证明的那样，油气行业可能会转向延长现有资产的使用寿命，而不是直接退役（Gokhale 2021）。此外，由于疫情，2020年初的能源价格较低，这意味着老电厂正在考虑延长寿命，作为通过延长运营来弥补损失的方法（Randall-Smith 2020）。评估WTG组件结构完整性的另一种方法是应用概率方法。概率结构完整性分析，通常被称为结构可靠性分析，考虑了输入载荷和电阻特性的概率分布，从而给出了构件的失效频率。概率模型包含随机性，并且与确定性方法不同，确定性方法可以证明故障是不可信的，概率方法可以证明故障风险小于指定的可接受值，通常称为目标可靠性。目标可靠性是在给定时间内某一特定部件在特定故障模式下允许发生故障的概率。

Studies show that a significant number of offshore wind turbine generators (WTGs) will reach the endof their type certified design life before 2030 (Adedipe and Shafiee 2021) and with the push in recent yearsto increase the installed capacity of offshore wind energy to meet Net-Zero targets and improve energysecurity, EoL decisions will become increasingly important. As demonstrated by the Middelgrunden andHR1 OWFs, the industry is likely to see a shift towards extending the operational life of existing assets asopposed to straight decommissioning (Gokhale 2021). Furthermore, the low energy prices at the start of2020, as a result of the pandemic, have meant that older plants are considering lifetime extension as amethod of recuperating losses through extended operation (Randall-Smith 2020).An alternative method of assessing WTG component structural integrity could be to apply a probabilisticapproach. Probabilistic structural integrity analyses, often referred to as structural reliability analysis,account for the probability distributions of the input load and resistance properties to give the failure frequencyof a component. Probabilistic models incorporate randomness and unlike deterministic methods,which can demonstrate that failure is not credible, probabilistic methods can demonstrate that the risk offailure is less than a specified acceptable value, often referred to as the target reliability. The target reliabilityis the allowable probability of failure in a given time for a particular a component under a specific failuremode.