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Probabilistic assessment of structural integrity of composite components in offshore wind energy

海上风能复合材料部件结构完整性的概率评估

基本信息

批准号：
2588448
负责人：
金额：
--
依托单位：
University of Edinburgh
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Studentship
财政年份：
2021
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2021 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2588448
关键词：
Probabilistic assessment structural integrity composite

项目摘要

Studies show that a significant number of offshore wind turbine generators (WTGs) will reach the endof their type certified design life before 2030 (Adedipe and Shafiee 2021) and with the push in recent yearsto increase the installed capacity of offshore wind energy to meet Net-Zero targets and improve energysecurity, EoL decisions will become increasingly important. As demonstrated by the Middelgrunden andHR1 OWFs, the industry is likely to see a shift towards extending the operational life of existing assets asopposed to straight decommissioning (Gokhale 2021). Furthermore, the low energy prices at the start of2020, as a result of the pandemic, have meant that older plants are considering lifetime extension as amethod of recuperating losses through extended operation (Randall-Smith 2020).An alternative method of assessing WTG component structural integrity could be to apply a probabilisticapproach. Probabilistic structural integrity analyses, often referred to as structural reliability analysis,account for the probability distributions of the input load and resistance properties to give the failure frequencyof a component. Probabilistic models incorporate randomness and unlike deterministic methods,which can demonstrate that failure is not credible, probabilistic methods can demonstrate that the risk offailure is less than a specified acceptable value, often referred to as the target reliability. The target reliabilityis the allowable probability of failure in a given time for a particular a component under a specific failuremode.

研究表明，大量海上风力涡轮机发电机（WTG）将在2030年之前达到其型号认证设计寿命的终点（Adedipe和Shafiee 2021），随着近年来增加海上风能装机容量以实现净零目标并提高能源安全性，EoL决策将变得越来越重要。正如Middelgrunden和HR 1 OWF所证明的那样，该行业可能会看到延长现有资产的使用寿命而不是直接退役的转变（Gokhale 2021）。此外，疫情导致2020年初能源价格较低，这意味着较老的电厂正在考虑延长使用寿命，作为通过延长运行恢复损失的方法（Randall-Smith 2020）。评估WTG组件结构完整性的另一种方法可能是应用概率方法。概率结构完整性分析，通常被称为结构可靠性分析，考虑输入载荷和抗力特性的概率分布，以给出部件的失效频率。概率模型包含随机性，与确定性方法不同，确定性方法可以证明故障是不可信的，概率方法可以证明故障风险小于指定的可接受值，通常称为目标可靠性。目标可靠度是指在给定的失效模式下，某个部件在给定的时间内允许失效的概率。