Extreme sea-level change and strategic infrastructure adaptation pathways

鉴于工业时代的测量和预测的全球海平面长期上升，英国迫切需要优先考虑其未来战略性沿海基础设施的适应和规划，以确保其长期弹性。例如，沿海地区实现低碳目标的关键可再生基础设施在哪里？它对未来极端海平面的适应能力如何？该项目旨在推进新的跨学科方法（气候科学、地理空间分析、工程决策），以检查最近公布的气候变化和海平面上升预测（UKCP18; IPCC AR6）对英国关键沿海基础设施长期规划的危害和社会经济影响。它与EPSRC的研究领域保持一致：沿海和水道工程；基础设施和城市系统；运筹学。目标：在专家的参与下，为英国确定一组极端海平面情景，用于低分辨率、高影响分析。收集数字数据集并整合到一个功能框架中，以包括基础设施网络；高程模型;未来海平面情景；在不同时空尺度上的风险评估框架和气候服务。缩减空间分析案例研究区沿海和河口关键基础设施的未来脆弱性和对海平面上升的暴露评估极端情景对案例研究区的直接和间接影响，并在案例研究区内建立阈值和适应方案。制定长期战略规划的适应性途径，并调查该方法在国家层面的可扩展性。潜在的应用和好处：提高对英国沿海战略基础设施的脆弱性、暴露和风险的理解。提高了对海平面上升的适应反应的优先次序。完善沿海基础设施长期规划。改进了复杂模型输出、不确定性和自适应规划方法的数据传播。改善业主/营办商、持份者、社区、监管机构和政府之间的合作和协调。

In the light of the measured industrial-age and predicted long-term rise in global sea levels, the UK rapidly needs ways to prioritise its future strategic coastal infrastructure adaption and planning to ensure their long-term resilience. For example, where is critical renewable infrastructure at the coast that will deliver our low carbon targets, and how resilient is it to future extreme sea-levels? This project aims to advance novel cross-disciplinary approaches (climate science; geo-spatial analysis; engineering decision making) to examine the hazards and socio-economic impacts of recently published climate change and sea-level-rise projections (UKCP18; IPCC AR6) on long term planning of critical coastal infrastructure in the UK. It aligns with EPSRC research areas: Coastal and waterway engineering; Infrastructure and urban systems; Operational Research.Objectives:With expert engagement, determine a set of extreme sea-level scenarios for the UK for low resolution, high impact analysis. Collect the digital datasets and integrate into a functional framework to include infrastructure networks; elevation models; future sea level scenarios; risk assessment frameworks and climate services, at a variety of spatial and temporal scales.Downscale the spatial analysis coastal & estuarine critical infrastructure's future vulnerability and exposure to rising sea levels in case study regions (CSRs)Estimate the direct and indirect impacts of extreme scenarios in CSRs, and establish thresholds and options for adaptation within CSRs. Develop adaptive pathways for long-term strategic planning and investigate the scalability of the approach to national levels. Potential applications and benefits:Improved understanding of vulnerability, exposure and risk of UK coastal strategic infrastructure.Improved of prioritisation of adaption responses to sea level rise.Improved long term planning of/for coastal infrastructure.Improved data dissemination of complex model outputs, uncertainties and adaptive planning approaches.Improved co-operation and coordination between owners/operators, stakeholders, communities, regulatory bodies and government.