PIONEER: An Adaptation Approach for Resilient Coastal Infrastructure Against Sea Level Rise

PIONEER：针对海平面上升的弹性沿海基础设施的适应方法

• 批准号: EP/Y002547/1
• 负责人: Melis Sutman
• 金额: $ 18.21万
• 依托单位: University of Edinburgh
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FY002547%2F1
• 关键词: PIONEER; Adaptation; Approach; Resilient; Coastal

Mean sea level around the UK has risen by approximately 1.5 mm per year on average from the start of the 20th century. This rate has increased to levels exceeding 3 mm per year for the period 1993-2019. The projections of sea level rise show that UK sea level will continue to rise well beyond 2100, even under scenarios where future temperature rise is stopped. For instance, under a low emissions scenario, the approximate projected ranges at 2300 are 0.5 - 2.2 m for London and Cardiff, and 0.0 - 1.7 m for Edinburgh and Belfast. Under a high emissions scenario, this increases to 1.4 - 4.3 m for London and Cardiff, and 0.7 - 3.6 m for Edinburgh and Belfast. Extreme sea level events are also expected to become more frequent in the future and occurring about 20 to 30 times more frequently by the year 2050.Around 148 million people are exposed to coastal flooding events worldwide, which will surge in the coming decades. Rising sea level will also have strong economic consequences. For instance, the investment required to protect London is expected to exceed 20 billion GBP. According to IPCC, unavoidable sea level rise will bring cascading and compounding impacts resulting in flooding and damages to coastal infrastructure that cascade into risks to livelihoods, settlements, health, well-being, food, and water security in the near to long-term.There are several known approaches to adapt to sea level rise (e.g., realignment, nature-based solutions, soft/hard defences). Although realignment, nature-based solutions and soft defences provide lower cost, sustainable and resilient solutions, there are cases where hard defence is unavoidable to: hold the line. Yet, they have the risk of increased exposure to climate risks in the long-term unless they are integrated into an adaptive plan, which strongly relies on understanding their response to future sea level rise and extreme events.The sea level rise, along with the increase of the extreme sea level events, will lead to increased frequency of wave overtopping at the seawalls. Wave overtopping will have significant impact on the interaction of the wall with the backfill soil, affecting the stability of the seawalls in the long-term. The extent to which the seawalls can be integrated as a part of the long-term climate change adaptation plans will depend substantially on their response to future sea level rise and extreme sea level events.To adapt the seawall design accordingly, the impact of wave overtopping on the overall stability of seawalls need to be evaluated in terms of modified backfill soil-seawall interaction due to (i) wetting-drying cycles and (ii) erosion. This first project will focus on the first aspect, unlocking the fundamental behaviour of backfill soil-seawall interaction to wetting-drying cycles due to wave overtopping.Considering the global nature of the problem, an international collaboration is of paramount importance to find a mutual solution with academics, stakeholders and industry partners. Thus, this project will be a first step to initiate international collaboration between Heriot Watt University (HWU) and Virginia Tech (VT), USA.The main benefits of this research work will be on (i) coastal population, (ii) UK economy and (iii) agricultural land and cultural values.

从世纪开始，英国周围的平均海平面平均每年上升约1.5毫米。在1993-2019年期间，这一速度已增加到每年超过3毫米的水平。海平面上升的预测表明，英国海平面将继续上升，远远超过2100年，即使在未来气温上升停止的情况下。例如，在低排放情景下，2300年时伦敦和卡迪夫的预测范围大致为0.5 - 2.2米，爱丁堡和贝尔法斯特为0.0 - 1.7米。在高排放情景下，这一数字在伦敦和卡迪夫增加到1. 4 - 4. 3米，在爱丁堡和贝尔法斯特增加到0. 7 - 3. 6米。预计未来极端海平面事件也将变得更加频繁，到2050年，发生频率将增加约20至30倍。全球约有1.48亿人面临沿海洪水事件，未来几十年将激增。海平面上升也将带来严重的经济后果。例如，保护伦敦所需的投资预计将超过200亿英镑。根据IPCC，不可避免的海平面上升将带来连锁和复合影响，导致洪水和对沿海基础设施的破坏，从而在近期和长期内对生计，住区，健康，福祉，粮食和水安全造成风险。重组、基于自然的解决方案、软/硬防御）。虽然重新调整，基于自然的解决方案和软防御提供了成本较低，可持续和有弹性的解决方案，但在某些情况下，硬防御是不可避免的：守住防线。然而，除非将其纳入适应性计划，否则它们长期面临的气候风险会增加，而适应性计划在很大程度上依赖于了解它们对未来海平面上升和极端事件的反应。海平面上升，沿着极端海平面事件的增加，将导致海堤越浪频率增加。越浪量会对海堤与回填土的相互作用产生显著影响，从而影响海堤的长期稳定性。海堤能否纳入长期气候变化适应计划，主要视乎其对未来海平面上升和极端海平面事件的反应而定。为因应情况而调整海堤设计，由于（i）干湿循环和（ii）侵蚀这第一个项目将集中在第一个方面，解锁回填土-海堤相互作用的基本行为，以适应由于波浪漫顶而导致的干湿循环。考虑到问题的全球性质，国际合作对于与学术界，利益相关者和行业合作伙伴找到共同的解决方案至关重要。因此，该项目将是埃里奥特瓦特大学（HWU）和美国弗吉尼亚理工大学（VT）之间开展国际合作的第一步。这项研究工作的主要好处将是（i）沿海人口，（ii）英国经济和（iii）农业土地和文化价值。