Investigating the role of symptom severity on health economic outcomes

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The context of the researchEmerging evidence supports the exsistence of a symptom severity mapping during the transmission of the respiratory diseases, meaning that the symptom severity of an infectious individual affects the symptom severity of those they infect. A symptom severity mapping has not been explored using mathematical models of infectious diseases, so this paper aims to fill the gap in literatire and further research into immunological responses to respiratory diseases to determine how symptoms develop after infections and the factors that play a crucial role.The aims and obejectives of the researchThis project aims to determine the likelihood and extent of a symptom severity mapping through a review of the litertature and an exploraion of data required for parameterisation. These results will then be used to invesitgate the implact of a ymptom severity mapping onhealth economic outcomes in various scenarios.The novelty of the research methodologyAlthough compartmental ODE models for respiratory diseases are widely used, differentiating between symptom severity levels has only become widespread recently, witnh the COVID_19 pandeimic leading to focus on asymptomatic transmission. Whilst these models account for differeing transmssion rates of infectious periods across sympom severity levels, there are no models that invesitgate the impact on subsequent symptom severity. The novelty of the research method comes from the inclusion of a symptom seveity mapping between n seveity levels for which the dependnace on infector severity can be varied.The potential impact, applications and benefitsThe primary focus will be exploring the impact of symptom severity mapping on health economic outcomes. Such mapping might lead to changes in the cost-effectiveness of specific policies, leading to a recommendation of interventions that could save more lives and cost less for governments or health care services. This project may motivate further research into the mechanims of respiratory disease transmission to determine the extent to which a symptom severity mapping exsists.How the research relates to the EPSRC remitThis research falls into the Mathematical Sciences research area, specifically mathematical biology. The project will use novel applications of exsisitng techniques to improve mode;s of disease spread at a population-wide level.External PartnerUK Health Security Agency