The future of private car ownership: who is breaking up with their car and why?

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The research into the psychology of car dependency shows that travel habits are hard to change. Even when people state a desire to drive less - for example because of environmental concerns - they find it hard to change their behaviour. Many people feel, or indeed are, locked-in to system of a car ownership through a complex system of social, economic, built environment and structural factors. However, there are weak signals of change in this system with some individuals voluntarily choosing to not own a car, or to "shed" one or more cars from a multi-car household. If these behaviours are supported and amplified through policy rewards and disincentives, there could be a tipping point away from private car ownership towards a sustainable, low-carbon mobility system where active, public and shared forms of travel are the norm for the majority of urban dwellers. My hypothesis is that this tipping point away from private car ownership could be achieved with policy instruments (sticks and carrots) to amplify emerging behaviours and practices relating to voluntary non-car ownership. The aim of my PhD research is to generate new knowledge relating to the social, economic and built environment factors that favour a shift towards voluntary non-car ownership. The objectives are to gain insights into voluntary non-car ownership attitudes and practices at an individual (micro), local-regional (meso) and national (macro) level. These insights will be used to develop and test a range of scenarios for the future of private car ownership.My research will comprise four separate studies which each contribute new knowledge to the overarching research question. Study 1 (Dec 2022- July 2023) will be a systematic, transdisciplinary review of the existing research literature relating to voluntary non-car ownership. Study 2 (April 2023 - September 2023) will research policy-led action (UK and international) to constrain car ownership. This will involve a review of secondary data and primary qualitative data collection through a series of key stakeholder interviews. Study 3 (October 2023 - October 2024) will build on insights from Studies 1 and 2 to build a picture of voluntary non-car ownership through quantitative analysis of secondary UK data (census, National Travel Survey, Household Longitudinal Study, ONS/DfT sources). This will be complemented by primary qualitative data collection using mobility biographies to understand the motivation of individuals relinquishing private car ownership. The insights from the three studies will be used for Study 4 (October 2024 - July 2025) to develop future narrative scenarios for private car ownership and draw conclusions on the implications for transport policy and action. These outputs will be tested with the key stakeholders engaged in Study 2.The new knowledge developed could be used to build the evidence base for local and national governments to strengthen policy interventions to reduce private car use and ownership in urban areas. This in turn would lead to lower carbon emissions, better air quality and public places more conducive to active travel and social interaction. The research findings could equally be used by community groups/activists to campaign, and innovate locally, for improved public transport, shared mobility and walking and cycling facilities to reduce car dependency.