An empirical model to predict geo-magnetic storms at Earth.

由于空间天气对近地空间的严重影响，预测空间天气已成为当今一个重要的研究领域。日冕物质抛射是太空天气的主要驱动因素。向南磁场方向（Bz）指向地球的日冕物质抛射可以引起地球上的地磁风暴。在我的博士阶段，我们建议通过将源区磁场观测与地球指向cme的现场磁场观测相结合，建立经验关系来确定L1处Bz的方向。为了实现这一目标，我们的目标是利用来自SoHO-MDI、SDO-HMI仪器的太阳表面磁场信息，以及来自ACE和WIND上的磁力计在近地环境中进行的现场磁场测量。我们还将使用GCS对STEREO-SECCHI， SoHO-LASCO日冕仪图像中观测到的日冕物质抛射进行拟合，以估计日冕物质抛射的更好方向，从而估计在太阳附近爆发后嵌入的通量绳。除此之外，我们还计划利用PSP和太阳轨道器的行星际磁场和太阳风观测来进一步改进模型。这有助于预测地球上地磁风暴的强度，并增加我们对太空天气预报的了解。

Predicting space weather has become an important research area today due to its severe effects on near-Earth space. CMEs are the major drivers of space weather. An Earth-directed CME with the southward magnetic field orientation (Bz) can cause geomagnetic storms on Earth. During my PhD , we propose to identify the orientation of Bz at L1 by developing an empirical relation by combining source region magnetic field observations with the in-situ magnetic field observations for the Earth-directed CMEs. To implement this, we aim to use solar surface magnetic field information from instruments SoHO-MDI, SDO-HMI, and in-situ magnetic field measurements in near-Earth environments from magnetometers onboard ACE, and WIND. We will also use GCS fitting for the CMEs observed in the coronagraph images from STEREO-SECCHI, SoHO-LASCO for estimating the better orientation of CME and hence the embedded flux rope just after eruption close to the Sun. Apart from these, we also plan to use PSP and Solar orbiter interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind observations to further improve the model. This could help in forecasting the strength of the geomagnetic storms on Earth and increase our understanding of space weather forecast.