Building a modelling framework to aid the identification and management of key conservation areas for UK seabirds

保护区作为保护现有生物多样性热点的一种手段正受到越来越多的关注。然而，保护区的规划很少考虑到未来气候变化的影响，而且经常忽略考虑附近土地利用变化的影响。此外，保护区和其他保护行动往往孤立地考虑海洋和陆地领域，并可能错过领域之间的关键相互作用，而这些相互作用可能对多领域生态系统（如海岸）产生重大影响。海鸟面临着来自海洋和陆地领域的威胁，并面临着来自人为压力源的巨大压力。因此，该项目将以英国的海鸟作为案例研究，通过开发一个模型来帮助保护规划，该模型将海洋和陆地领域的气候和陆地/海洋使用驱动因素结合起来，以确定保护优先区域。首先，将使用物种分布模型来确定海鸟的主要沿海特征和当前的优先区域。然后，气候和土地利用预测将用于确定沿海地区何时何地可能改变其对海鸟的适宜性。最后，我们会进行检讨，以确定哪些行动能最有效地维持主要沿海地区的保育潜力。

Protected areas are receiving increasing attention as a means to preserve existing biodiversity hotspots. However, planning of protected areas rarely accounts for the effects of future climate change, and often neglects to consider the impacts of nearby land-use change. In addition, protected areas and other conservation actions tend to consider the marine and terrestrial realms in isolation, and can miss crucial interactions between realms, which may have significant impacts on multi-realm ecosystems, such as coasts. Seabirds are exposed to threats from both the marine and terrestrial realms and are under significant pressure from anthropogenic stressors. Therefore, this project will use seabirds in the UK as a case study to aid in conservation planning by developing a model which integrates climate and land/sea use drivers from both the marine and terrestrial realms to identify conservation priority areas. Firstly, a species distribution model will be used to identify key coastal characteristics for seabirds, and current priority areas. Then, climate and land-use projections will be used to identify when and where coastal areas are likely to change their suitability for seabirds. Finally, a review will be conducted to identify which actions will be most effective in maintaining conservation potential of key coastal areas.