Building a modelling framework to aid the identification and management of key conservation areas for UK seabirds

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Protected areas are receiving increasing attention as a means to preserve existing biodiversity hotspots. However, planning of protected areas rarely accounts for the effects of future climate change, and often neglects to consider the impacts of nearby land-use change. In addition, protected areas and other conservation actions tend to consider the marine and terrestrial realms in isolation, and can miss crucial interactions between realms, which may have significant impacts on multi-realm ecosystems, such as coasts. Seabirds are exposed to threats from both the marine and terrestrial realms and are under significant pressure from anthropogenic stressors. Therefore, this project will use seabirds in the UK as a case study to aid in conservation planning by developing a model which integrates climate and land/sea use drivers from both the marine and terrestrial realms to identify conservation priority areas. Firstly, a species distribution model will be used to identify key coastal characteristics for seabirds, and current priority areas. Then, climate and land-use projections will be used to identify when and where coastal areas are likely to change their suitability for seabirds. Finally, a review will be conducted to identify which actions will be most effective in maintaining conservation potential of key coastal areas.