Improved Characterization of Hydroclimatic Extremes through the Development of a Comprehensive Nonstationary Modelling Framework

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Analysis, design, and management of civil infrastructure require accurate estimation of hydroclimatic extremes including floods and droughts. It is now widely recognized that the planet's climate, including its hydroclimate, is no longer stationary, in great measure due to land-use change and human influence on Earth's climate. Unprecedented changes in flood and drought events may threaten existing infrastructure and challenge future designs. This research program will develop innovative frameworks for accurate estimation of hydroclimatic extremes at regional and global scales, leading to more sustainable design and management of civil infrastructure. It comprises three short-term objectives, which constitute a cohesive and comprehensive nonstationary modelling framework, to characterize historical causes of change, develop predictive nonstationary models and predict future changes in extremes. 1- Systematic diagnosis of the historical drivers of change Understanding the causes of change in extreme events is required by engineers and decision makers for informed design and planning. A systematic framework will be developed to distinguish between the effects of land-use change (through urbanization, deforestation, among others) and climate change on hydroclimatic extremes. 2- Development of nonstationary physically-based and statistical models to predict hydroclimatic extremes Accurate and precise estimation of the magnitude and frequency of extremes is required for the reliable design and planning of civil infrastructure. New probabilistic frameworks based on Bayesian statistics will be developed to explicitly characterize non-stationarity in statistical regional frequency analysis (RFA) approaches. Also, the important role of nonstationary physically-based distributed hydrologic models for the accurate prediction of hydrologic extremes will be examined. 3- Future impacts of climate and land-use change on hydroclimatic extremesInnovative models will be developed to assess projected impacts of climate and land-use change on hydroclimatic extremes, and investigate their implications for infrastructure design and planning. Different sources of uncertainties, including internal climate variability and modelling errors, will be characterized. The role of nonstationary physically-based and statistical models to estimate projected changes in extremes will be investigated. This research will address an open question in the hydroclimate analysis that is how to estimate the nonstationary hydroclimatic extremes. It will change the way scientists and engineers estimate extreme events for future design and planning. The program will provide training for six graduate students in state-of-the-art physically-based and statistical models to solve critical water resources problems.