Integrating genomics and modelling to predict climate change response and identify drivers of decline in the endangered freshwater pearl mussel (Marga

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Accurate predictions of climate change response are needed to protect global biodiversity that continues to be impacted by environmental change. Recent work has demonstrated the utility of genomics for improving these predictions (Waldvogel et al., 2019), and it has the power to transform wildlife conservation. Although these methods are applicable to all ecosystems and taxa, their predictions are particularly critical for species that are of national importance. Mussels are important to the health of freshwater ecosystems because of their role in water purification and nutrient cycling (Vaughn, 2017), but they are also among the most endangered animals on the planet. The freshwater pearl mussel, Margaritifera margaritiera, was once widely distributed across the Northern Hemisphere, but is now considered rare across most of its range. Some of the largest remaining populations have been found in northwest Scotland (Cosgrove et al. 2016), making it a pressing conservation priority for the region. Several factors have contributed to their decline, including pollution, pearl fishing and low density of salmonids that serve as hosts for the larval stage, but the role of climate in this decline is largely unknown and critical to understand.