Data-driven climate change risk assessment for heritage in England

数据驱动的英格兰遗产气候变化风险评估

• 批准号: 2733083
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2733083
• 关键词: Data; driven; climate; change; risk

A changing climate is impacting the resilience of the infrastructure, economy and resource use, and wellbeing that underpin society. Heritage, within the historic built environment and as archaeological sites, has an important role to play in addressing each of these aspects. Underpinning our understanding of the impacts of climate change is risk assessment. Herein we propose to use the risk framework currently used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which identifies three components of risk: hazard - a potentially destructive physical phenomenon, exposure - the location, attributes, and value of [heritage] assets that are important to communities and that could be affected by a hazard, and vulnerability - the likelihood that assets will be affected/damaged/destroyed when exposed to a hazard. Most risk assessment to date on climate change and heritage has focused on hazard assessment, including mapping, and communicating changes in frequency of occurrence and/or severity, combined with a qualitative representation of the vulnerability, this includes Historic England's own collaboration with UK heritage partners to map the climate hazards affecting heritage. Thus, our perception of areas that are prone to the greatest level of risk to climate change in the UK is informed by those with the most significant changes in hazards. However, this overlooks the fact only a small fraction of heritage, certain types of heritage, or heritage with significance to particular communities, may lie within these areas as identified through hazard assessment alone, or have values that are vulnerable to those hazards.Drawing on the IPCC framework above, a more accurate understanding of climate change related risks for heritage needs to incorporate vulnerability and exposure. Due to the diversity and scale of England's rich heritage (there are about 360,000 heritage assets on the National Heritage list for England and many times that on local Historic Environment Records and existent as unlisted heritage), this requires a data-driven approach. This project will undertake a statistical climate change risk assessment that incorporates hazard, vulnerability, and exposure for England's heritage. This project will use data-driven spatial analysis and communication to provide statistically robust climate change-heritage risk assessment that combine climatic impact drivers (hazards) with heritage vulnerability and exposure. This will begin with a review of the relevant literature and subject expertise present in heritage organisations and a pilot project for the NHLE. The bulk of the project will be devoted to developing representations of national-scale risk and communication/dissemination outputs.This project would identify the limitations of existing approaches within climate heritage resilience research, practice, and policy. By relating these approaches to their theoretical basis, it would identify opportunities to improve statistical approaches to climate heritage resilience, especially to align historically disparate impacts and responses more closely to climate change within material loss, social and economic contexts, and sustainable resource use. The exploration of innovative statistical methods within the field will develop new directions for research climate heritage resilience and produce new evidence to inform policy and practice. This work will lay the foundation for robust and dynamic responses to climate change in a heritage context, which would establish the student at the front of an emerging area of the heritage sector while also equipping them with comprehensive data science skills that could be applied more widely.

气候变化正在影响基础设施、经济和资源利用的复原力，以及支撑社会的福祉。遗产，作为历史建筑环境和考古遗址，在解决这些方面都发挥着重要作用。风险评估是我们理解气候变化影响的基础。在此，我们建议使用政府间气候变化专门委员会目前使用的风险框架，该框架确定了风险的三个组成部分：危害-潜在的破坏性物理现象，暴露-对社区重要且可能受到危害影响的[遗产]资产的位置，属性和价值，以及脆弱性-资产在暴露于危害时受到影响/损坏/摧毁的可能性。迄今为止，大多数关于气候变化和遗产的风险评估都集中在危害评估上，包括绘制地图，传达发生频率和/或严重程度的变化，并结合脆弱性的定性表征，这包括英格兰历史博物馆与英国遗产合作伙伴合作绘制影响遗产的气候危害地图。因此，我们对英国气候变化风险最高的地区的看法是由那些危险变化最显著的地区提供的。然而，这忽略了这样一个事实，即只有一小部分遗产，某些类型的遗产，或对特定社区具有重要意义的遗产，可能仅通过危害评估确定在这些区域内，或者具有易受这些危害影响的价值。根据上述IPCC框架，要更准确地理解与气候变化相关的遗产风险，需要将脆弱性和暴露性纳入其中。由于英格兰丰富的遗产的多样性和规模（英格兰国家遗产名录上约有36万份遗产资产，是当地历史环境记录和未列入遗产的许多倍），这需要数据驱动的方法。该项目将进行统计气候变化风险评估，包括英国遗产的危害、脆弱性和暴露。该项目将使用数据驱动的空间分析和通信，提供统计上可靠的气候变化遗产风险评估，将气候影响驱动因素（危害）与遗产脆弱性和暴露性结合起来。这将从对遗产组织中存在的相关文献和学科专业知识的审查和NHLE的试点项目开始。该项目的大部分将专门用于编制国家规模的风险和通讯/传播产出的说明。该项目将确定气候遗产复原力研究、实践和政策中现有方法的局限性。通过将这些方法与其理论基础联系起来，它将发现改进气候遗产复原力统计方法的机会，特别是在物质损失、社会和经济背景以及可持续资源利用的情况下，将历史上不同的影响和响应与气候变化更紧密地联系起来。在该领域探索创新的统计方法将为研究气候遗产复原力开辟新的方向，并为政策和实践提供新的证据。这项工作将为遗产背景下对气候变化的强有力和动态响应奠定基础，这将使学生站在遗产部门新兴领域的前沿，同时也为他们提供可以更广泛应用的综合数据科学技能。