Predicting species distributions for biodiversity renewal decisions. (Ref:4444)

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We are in a biodiversity crisis and a challenge for ecologists is to devise strategies for targeting conservation effort effectively. Where should new habitats be created, and how should they be managed? Typically, ecologists have used habitat suitability models to predict how species respond to changes in land-use, but species occurrence is affected not only by the suitability of habitat at that location, but also by the spatial configuration habitats. Species are more likely to survive in bigger, better and more connected habitats. For this reason, meta-population models are often used to assess how regional persistence is maintained by a balance between local extinctions and colonisations from surrounding habitats. However such models are data hungry: one must verify the presence or absence of populations in every patch of habitat before predictions can be easily made. Moreover, they are less able to account for ongoing incremental changes (positive or negative) in habitat quality. Despite the evident strengths and weaknesses of these two approaches, they have yet to be unified into a single framework.The PhD student recruited in this project will be registered and based at the University of Exeter's Penryn Campus in Cornwall. S/he will working closely with the project team and as part of a vibrant community of researchers and conservation practitioners delivering a large NERC-funded project: "Renewing biodiversity through a people-in-nature approach (RENEW)". S/he will (1) work with the project team to develop modelling approaches for predicting how species respond to habitat creation and restoration, (2) test the model rigorously by collecting field data on declining woodland bird species in south-west England, including Lesser Spotted Woodpecker (Dendrocopos minor) and Willow Tit (Poecile montanus). Then, by working closely with a range of land-managers and conservation stakeholders (farmers, RSPB, Natural England and The Wildlife Trusts) and under the auspices of the G7 Legacy Project, s/he will use the models to guide targeted biodiversity renewal actions. The G7 Legacy Project is an ambitious nature recovery project, aiming to deliver a lasting legacy for nature, climate and the people of Cornwall. It will restore land and habitats for key species including woodland birds. The area forms part of an England wide nature recovery network - a national network of wildlife-rich places that the government has committed to creating in its 25 Year Environment Plan.