Forecasting, ordering and inventory management in the presence of supply chain disruptions

供需匹配是许多企业在应对不确定性时面临的一个关键问题。前所未有的情况只会加剧问题，因为我们还不知道这种情况将如何影响需求和/或供应。COVID-19就是其中一种情况，它对供应链造成了巨大的破坏。库存的过剩和短缺问题以及需求的随机性构成了本文研究的基础。必须研究影响人们日常生活方式的供求模式的波动。卫生纸、食品和饮料等基本商品的需求必须准确预测、编号和管理。我们都可以观察到，许多这些产品都脱销了，尽管这些产品通常很容易预测和管理。然而，如果发生供应中断，我们缺乏准确预测需求和确定适当库存水平的方法。标准方法不再有效，我们需要确定在这种情况下应该使用哪些方法。考虑到供应链管理下的库存管理学科，沿着统计公式和预测领域，新的方法可以及时满足消费者的需求。

Matching supply and demand is a crucial problem that many businesses face when dealing with uncertainty. An unprecedented situation only exacerbates the problem, because we do not know yet how this situation is going to affect demand and/or supply. COVID-19, one such scenario, has caused a huge disruption in the supply chain. The problem of excess and shortage of inventory and the stochasticity of demand forms the basis for this study. It is essential to study the fluctuations in supply and demand patterns that affect people's daily lifestyles. Demand for basic goods such as toilet paper, edible products, and beverages must be accurately forecasted, numbered, and managed. We could all observe that many of these products were out-of-stock, despite these being products that are usually easy to forecast and manage. However, if a supply disruption occurs, we lack the methods to accurately forecast demand and determine appropriate inventory levels. Standard methods no longer worked well and we need to identify which methods should be used in such a situation. Considering the discipline of inventory management under the umbrella of supply chain management, along with the field of statistical formulation and forecasting, novel methods could be interesting to meet consumer needs in a timely manner.