Untangling the effects of climate change on ice shelf melting in the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica

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Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has the potential to cause over 3 metres of sea level rise, which would devastate coastal cities worldwide. The most immediate threat to the ice sheet is ocean warming in the Amundsen Sea. However, the processes which cause this warming are complex and poorly understood. Over the last century, changes in the winds over the Amundsen Sea have likely driven ocean warming, by pumping warm water from the deep ocean onto the continental shelf. These wind changes are partially caused by human-induced climate change, and are expected to continue in the future. However, over the next century, we also expect to see large increases in air temperature over the Amundsen Sea. It is not known how a warmer atmosphere will affect the ocean circulation in this region. Which matters more to the Amundsen Sea: winds, or atmospheric warming? How do these two climatic changes work in isolation, and do they interact? At what point, if any, will atmospheric warming take over from the winds as the dominant mechanism driving ocean warming in the Amundsen Sea? This project will use models to answer these fundamental questions about the future of West Antarctica.