Developing a next-generation biodiversity indicator to provide improved estimates of trends in wildlife abundance.

全球生物多样性正在下降(IPBES，2020)。了解野生动物种群如何应对人类活动引起的气候变化、土地利用变化和其他威胁，对于生物多样性丧失的“曲线转弯”至关重要(Mace等人，2020年)。活着的星球指数是一个全球数据集，包含4400多种脊椎动物的28,000个种群趋势，为生物多样性评估提供了一个独特的工具。它已在国内和国际上被用于评估实现生物多样性目标的进展情况，如爱知目标、IPBES和2020年后框架，并为世界自然基金会两年一度的旗舰报告--生命星球报告提供信息，估计覆盖人数为1亿人。该项目提供了一个独特的机会来改进一个有影响力和广泛使用的全球生物多样性指标。它将开发一个名为“活着的星球指数2.0”，这是使用最先进的统计模型的全球野生动物数量趋势的下一代指标。该项目包括四个目标：1)量化和减少生物行星指数数据库中的数据差距造成的偏差，以便最好地为数据覆盖稀少的地点的政策提供信息。2)通过联合对威胁数据(包括气候和土地利用变化)和野生动物种群趋势进行建模，表征生物多样性变化的主要区域和全球驱动因素。3)确定极端种群变化(非常迅速的增加或减少)，这些变化具有似是而非和不现实的特征(例如，对于物种的生活史来说，变化太快)，4)建立一个易于使用和易用的生命星球指数2.0仪表板，该仪表板结合了目标1-3的改进，并直接为决策者提供信息并确定保护行动的优先次序。

Global biodiversity is in decline (IPBES, 2020). Understanding how wildlife populations respond to anthropogenically induced climate-change, land-use change and other threats is critical to 'bend-the-curve' of biodiversity loss (Mace et al, 2020). The Living Planet Index is a global dataset of 28,000 population trends of over 4400 vertebrate species that offers a unique tool for biodiversity assessment. It has been used nationally and internationally to assess progress towards biodiversity goals such as the Aichi targets, IPBES and post-2020 framework, and informs the Living Planet Report, WWF's biennial flagship report with an estimated reach of >100 million people. This project offers a unique opportunity to improve an impactful and widely-used global biodiversity indicator. It will develop a 'Living Planet Index 2.0', a next-generation indicator of trends in global wildlife abundance that uses state-of-the-art statistical modelling. The project includes four goals:1) Quantify and minimize biases caused by data gaps in the Living Planet Index database to best inform policy in locations with sparse data coverage.2) Characterize key regional and global drivers of biodiversity change by jointly modelling threat data (including climate and land use changes) and wildlife population trends.3) Identify extreme population changes (very rapid increases or declines) characterized as plausible vs unrealistic (eg, changes too rapid for the species' life history), and develop methods to reduce sensitivity of aggregated index assessments to such extremes.4) Build an easy-to-use and accessible dashboard for Living Planet Index 2.0 that combines improvements from goals 1-3 and directly informs policy-makers and prioritises conservation actions.