The Decline of Fertility in the United States, 1790-2000

1790 年至 2000 年美国生育率下降

• 批准号: 7077076
• 负责人: J. David Hacker
• 金额: $ 12.23万
• 依托单位: STATE UNIVERSITY OF NY,BINGHAMTON
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-06-01 至 2011-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7077076
• 关键词: United States; birth; fertility; human data; human population study; longitudinal human study; marriage /marital status; model design /development; parity; social model; socioeconomics

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Research on the causes and policy implications of fertility decline and differentials in the United States has been hampered a lack of comparable, long-term fertility estimates and a focus on short-term factors. This project will: (1) produce a consistently constructed and comparable set of fertility trends and differentials between 1790 and 2000; and (2) construct empirical models to understand the processes by which fertility declined. The analysis relies on data from two complementary sources: The Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS), a series of large, high-precision census microdata samples for fifteen census years between 1850 and 2000, and the National Historical Geographic Information System (NHGIS) project, a compatible dataset of aggregate data collected with the 1790-2000 censuses. The proposed development plan is designed to accomplish four objectives: 1) to acquire new methodological skills to allow me to accurately describe and explain long-term fertility decline in the United States; 2) to acquire a better theoretical grounding from which to integrate social and economic explanations of why American fertility declined; 3) to present my work at scholarly conferences and publish in leading journals; and 4) to prepare a grant proposal to support an independent research program. My plan includes three separate training components: mentorship by leading demographers and economists, coursework in demography at the University of Pennsylvania, and participation in the population research community via workshops and seminars at the Pennsylvania Population Studies Center and annual meetings of the Population Association of America.

描述（由申请人提供）：对美国生育率下降和差异的原因和政策影响的研究一直受到阻碍，缺乏可比的长期生育率估计和对短期因素的关注。该项目将：（1）制作一套结构一致、可比较的1790年至2000年生育率趋势和差异;（2）构建经验模型，以了解生育率下降的过程。该分析依赖于两个互补来源的数据：综合公共使用微数据系列（IPUMS），一系列大型，高精度的人口普查微数据样本，1850年至2000年之间的15个人口普查年份，以及国家历史地理信息系统（NHGIS）项目，一个兼容的数据集收集的汇总数据与1790年至2000年的人口普查。拟议的发展计划旨在实现四个目标：1）获得新的方法论技能，使我能够准确地描述和解释美国长期生育率下降; 2）获得更好的理论基础，整合美国生育率下降的社会和经济解释; 3）在学术会议上展示我的工作，并在领先的期刊上发表;（4）准备资助计划，以支持独立的研究计划。我的计划包括三个独立的培训部分：由领先的人口学家和经济学家指导，在宾夕法尼亚大学的人口学课程，并通过在宾夕法尼亚州人口研究中心和美国人口协会年会的讲习班和研讨会参与人口研究社区。