Understanding the emergent macro-scale impacts caused by the rapid expansion of Offshore Wind within The North Sea System

该项目的目的是找出北海海上风电的扩张是如何影响当前建立的社会生态系统的，并破译它们在不同海洋用途之间产生冲突的潜力。一个预期的项目成果是识别和/或预测系统的新出现的特征，例如对其他海洋用户或环境的看不见的影响。另一个是能够根据所获得的结果提出海洋空间规划（MSP）建议，最终培养北海系统的弹性和可持续性。为了实现这些结果，社会生态数据——这里涉及社会、经济和生态子系统——将首先在英格兰东北海岸的一段地区范围内收集。这将以现有的物理和一些社会变量监测数据的形式，以及利益相关者和当地社区访谈的形式，以了解当地规模系统的联系、相互作用和紧张关系。然后将特征应用到社会生态系统的概念模型中，其中包括当地风力发电开发引起的变化，然后通过集成一套已知的复杂系统模型来提高系统复杂性和预测能力。然后，本地模型将用于对北海物理、生态和社会环境的宏观数据进行有针对性的整理。然后将这些宏观数据应用于本地模型，然后使用历史数据运行该模型以测试其对北海社会生态系统的预测能力。然后，通过改变、增加或减少某些联系和因子来反映局部和区域尺度之间没有共享的任何复杂性，从而提高模型的准确性。然后将海上风能的预计扩张应用于模型，以发现紧急系统影响，例如海洋食物网的变化，生物地球化学循环，沿海人口动态以及海上风能如何有利于或损害其他海洋部门，如渔业和旅游业。总体目标是利用这些发现对北海的MSP产生积极影响。这个项目的目标是真正的跨学科，这意味着适当的信任将给予系统的各个方面，不像大多数类似的项目，往往高估经济，社会或生态子系统。由于这些公平的考虑，最终的MSP建议不仅有利于海上风电，也有利于许多其他海上用户。具体来说，该项目产生的知识将用于预测日益拥挤的北海地区的利益相关者冲突，并提出有助于控制或减轻冲突的MSP干预措施。

The aim of this project is to find out how the expansion of offshore wind in the North Sea is and will be effecting the currently established socio-ecological system, and to decipher their potential to generate conflicts between different marine uses.One intended project outcome is to identify and/or predict newly emergent features of the system, such as unseen effects on other marine users or the environment. Another is to be able to make Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) recommendations based on the results obtained, ultimately fostering resilience and boosting sustainability of the North Sea system.To achieve these outcomes, socio-ecological data - which pertain here to social, economic and ecological subsystems - will at first be gathered at the local scale, along a stretch of the North East coast of England. This will be in the forms of existing monitoring data for physical and some social variables, and in stakeholder and local community interviews to understand local scale system linkages, interactions and tensions. Features will then be applied into a conceptual model of the socio-ecological system, with changes that arise from local wind power development included, before system complexity and predictive capacity are improved by integrating in a suite of known complex systems models. The local model will then be used to inform targeted collation of macro-scale data on the physical, ecological and social environment of the North Sea. This macro-data will then be applied to the local model, before the model is ran to test its predictive ability for the North Sea socio-ecological system, by use of historical data. The model accuracy will then be improved by altering, adding, or subtracting certain linkages and agents to reflect any complexities that are not shared between the local and regional scales. The projected expansion of offshore wind energy will then be applied to the model to discover emergent system impacts, such as changes to ocean food webs, biogeochemical cycles, coastal population dynamics and how offshore wind may benefit or detriment other marine sectors such as fisheries and tourism. The overall goal is to use these findings to have a positive influence on MSP in the North Sea.This project aims to be truly interdisciplinary, meaning appropriate credence will be given to all aspects of the system, unlike in the majority of similar projects that tend to over-value either the economic, social or the ecological subsystems. Because of these equitable considerations, the resultant MSP recommendations would not only benefit offshore wind, but many other marine users too. Specifically, the knowledge generated from this project will be used to anticipate stakeholder conflicts in the increasingly crowded North Sea region, and suggest MSP interventions that help to control or mitigate them.