Climate-sick reindeer: developing model-based decision support tools to inform veterinary interventions for brainworm in managed reindeer

驯鹿放牧是土著萨米人文化、身份和粮食安全的核心。具有高水平动物福利的可持续畜牧实践需要关于疾病和全年变化的疾病风险的最新知识。牲畜在季节性放牧区之间的游牧流动使它们暴露于潜在的各种病原体。其中一些，包括寄生虫Elaphostrongylus rangiferi（脑蠕虫，导致elaphostrongylosis），与包括温度和降水在内的气候因素密切相关。在适当的气候条件下，感染性幼虫在蜗牛中间宿主体内的爆发性发育可导致驯鹿大规模疾病爆发，近年来，与气候变暖有关的疾病爆发对一些驯鹿群造成了毁灭性影响，牧民需要关于治疗和预防未来疾病爆发的替代战略的咨询意见。治疗选择有限且时间敏感-一旦看到临床症状，就为时已晚。预测驯鹿感染风险的模型可使牧民确定治疗的最佳时机，迁移到新牧场以避免感染，或改变屠宰策略，从而大大降低疫情的风险和影响。这一模型将为萨米牧民提供一个急需的工具，以帮助减轻气候变化对传统驯鹿放牧做法和粮食安全的负面影响，该项目建立在以前的一个试点项目的基础上，该项目开发了两个候选模型，但发现了重大的知识差距，目前阻碍我们利用这些模型为萨米牧民开发决策支持工具。您的目标是通过解决这些知识差距并改进和测试我们现有的模型，开发一个原型在线决策支持工具（如https：//www.scops.org.uk/forecasts/programodirus-forecast/）。

Reindeer herding is central to indigenous Sami culture, identity, and food security. Sustainable herding practices with high levels of animal welfare require up to date knowledge about disease and changing disease risk throughout the year. The nomadic transhumance movement of herds between seasonal grazing areas exposes them to a potentially wide range of pathogens. Some, including the parasite Elaphostrongylus rangiferi (brainworm, causing elaphostrongylosis), are closely linked to climatic factors including temperature and precipitation. Under the right climatic conditions explosive development of infectious larvae in the snail intermediate hosts can result in large disease outbreaks in reindeer.Outbreaks associated with warmer weather have had a devastating impact on some reindeer herds in recent years and the herders need advice on treatment and on alternative strategies to prevent future outbreaks. Treatment options are limited and time-sensitive - once clinical signs are seen, it is too late. Models that predict exposure of reindeer to infection could allow herders to identify the optimum timing of treatment, movement to new pasture to avoid infection, or altered slaughtering strategies, thus reducing the risk and impact of outbreaks significantly. Such a model would give the Sami herders a much-needed tool to help mitigate a negative impact of climate change on traditional reindeer herding practices and food security.The project builds on a previous pilot project which developed two candidate models but identified significant knowledge gaps that currently prevent us developing decision-support tools for the Sami herders from these models. Your aim will be to develop a prototype online decision-support tool (such as https://www.scops.org.uk/forecasts/nematodirus-forecast/) by addressing these knowledge gaps and improving and testing our existing models.