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Statistical Inference for Lead Time in Cancer Screening

癌症筛查提前期的统计推断

基本信息

批准号：
7047845
负责人：
Dongfeng Wu
金额：
$ 6.82万
依托单位：
MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2005
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2005-04-01 至 2007-09-30
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7047845
关键词：
breast neoplasms computer human interaction computer simulation computer system design /evaluation early diagnosis human data mathematical model method development model design /development neoplasm /cancer diagnosis statistics /biometry

项目摘要

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The long-term goal of this research is to develop new statistical methodology for the design and analysis of cancer screening trials. Cancer screening is the major technique for early detection of cancer, hence for disease control. The effectiveness of the screening program directly depends on lead time, which is the length of time the diagnosis is advanced by screening. The property of the lead time for the screening detected cases has been derived in today's literature, mainly in a stable disease model. However, the proportion of people who does not benefit from the screening is not addressed; further more, the long-term contribution of screening has not been evaluated. The specific aims are: (1) Derive the exact probability distribution for the lead time in a periodic screening program, for both the screening-detected cases and the interval cases, in both stable and nonstable disease models. Hence we can make statistical inference about the lead time, estimate the proportion of people who truly benefit from periodic screenings in a long-term scenario, and the proportion that does not. The proposed distribution of the lead time will depend on the sensitivity, the sojourn time distribution, the transition probability into the preclinical state, and the screening time intervals. The proposed method will be verified by extensive simulations. (2) Apply the proposed method to aid in developing the optimal design of periodic screening; in particular, choosing screening time intervals for groups of people with different risks. User-friendly software will be developed and made available to the research community. In summary, the proposed research will be an aid to increase the efficiency and reduce the cost of future periodic screening trials.

描述（由申请人提供）：本研究的长期目标是为设计和分析癌症筛查试验开发新的统计方法。癌症筛查是早期发现癌症，从而控制疾病的主要技术。筛查方案的有效性直接取决于提前期，即通过筛查提前诊断的时间长度。在今天的文献中，主要是在稳定的疾病模型中推导了筛选检测病例的提前期的性质。然而，没有从筛查中受益的人的比例没有得到解决；此外，筛查的长期作用尚未得到评估。