Analytic Methods:Enviornmental/Reproductive Epidemiology

分析方法：环境/生殖流行病学

• 批准号: 7056118
• 负责人: AMITA K. MANATUNGA
• 金额: $ 17.63万
• 依托单位: EMORY UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2003-08-01 至 2008-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7056118
• 关键词: analytical method; biphenyl compounds; clinical research; environmental exposure; epidemiology; female; female reproductive system; human data; mathematical model; menstrual cycle; method development; model design /development; statistics /biometry

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Analytic methods geared toward more precise and accurate exposure assessments, and toward ensuring validity in the estimation of exposure-response associations, are critical to epidemiologic studies. Given the scientific questions to be addressed and the often complex structure and nature of the data obtained, this fact is particularly pertinent to environmental and reproductive studies. This application draws specific motivation from two such studies, the Michigan Female Health Study (MFHS) and the Mount Sinai Study of Women Office Workers (MSSWOW). Hypotheses arising in these studies require research into improved and targeted methods for predicting random effects in mixed linear models, into methods for associating environmental exposures to reproductive outcomes while adjusting for measurement error, and into the modeling of longitudinal menstrual cycle length data. Using data collected on female MFHS participants who were exposed to polybrominated biphenyls (PBB) in the mid-1970s, we propose a linear mixed model to describe the decay of serum PBB levels over time while accounting for important fixed and time-dependent covariates (e.g., intervening pregnancies). This model forms the basis for research into optimal criteria for predicting the residual PBB level for each eligible woman at the time of an index pregnancy. These methods will be extended to account for PBB measurements that are below assay detection limits. Secondly, we propose simultaneous modeling of PBB measurements and reproductive health outcomes among MFHS participants and/or their daughters to obtain valid and consistent estimation of exposure-response associations while accounting for measurement error. Finally, we propose mixture models to describe the distribution of standard and non-standard menstrual cycle lengths using data from the MSSWOW, and we describe novel approaches to account for random within-woman heterogeneity and the effects of covariates in this context. This application is designed to improve analytic methods for epidemiologic research by incorporating current developments in statistical theory, by developing new methodology, and by targeting this effort toward important scientific studies. These developments will directly benefit environmental and reproductive studies, but they are ubiquitous enough to be generally useful contributions to statistical practice.

描述（由申请方提供）：旨在进行更精确和准确的暴露评估，并确保评估安全性-反应关联的有效性的分析方法对流行病学研究至关重要。鉴于需要解决的科学问题以及所获得的数据往往具有复杂的结构和性质，这一事实与环境和生殖研究特别相关。本申请从两项此类研究中得出了具体的动机，即密歇根州女性健康研究（MFHS）和西奈山女性办公室工作人员研究（MSSWOW）。这些研究中出现的假设需要研究改进和有针对性的方法来预测混合线性模型中的随机效应，将环境暴露与生殖结果相关联的方法，同时调整测量误差，以及纵向月经周期长度数据的建模。 利用20世纪70年代中期暴露于多溴联苯（PBB）的女性MFHS参与者收集的数据，我们提出了一个线性混合模型来描述血清PBB水平随时间的衰减，同时考虑了重要的固定和时间依赖的协变量（例如，怀孕）。这一模式构成了研究预测每个合格妇女在指数怀孕时多溴联苯残留水平的最佳标准的基础。这些方法将得到扩展，以考虑到低于分析检测限的多溴联苯测量值。其次，我们提出了多溴联苯的测量和生殖健康的结果之间MFHS参与者和/或他们的女儿，以获得有效的和一致的估计，同时占测量误差的测量响应协会同步建模。最后，我们提出了混合模型来描述的标准和非标准的月经周期长度的分布使用的数据从MSSWOW，我们描述了新的方法来解释随机内的女性异质性和协变量的影响，在这种情况下。 该应用程序旨在通过结合统计理论的最新发展，通过开发新的方法，并通过将此努力瞄准重要的科学研究，来改进流行病学研究的分析方法。这些发展将直接有利于环境和生殖研究，但它们无处不在，足以成为统计实践的普遍有用的贡献。