Fluid Dynamics - understanding fluid dynamics to improve our lives

热带气旋（tc）是热带地区最危险的恶劣天气系统之一。近年来，对TC轨迹的预测有所改进（Heming et al., 2016），能够更早地发出预警，并做出更好的准备。然而，尽管全球数值天气预报（NWP）模式对TC强度的预测有所改善，但比轨道预测要慢（De Maria et al., 2014）。在24小时内最大风速增加30节的快速强化（RI）事件（Kaplan and DeMaria, 2002）的预测仍然具有挑战性，负责RI的中尺度过程没有被全球NWP模式捕获。允许对流的区域模型能够更好地捕捉这些过程，但难以预测RI的时间和大小（Short and Petch, 2018）。涡旋罗斯比波（如Wang et al., 2002）可能是TC增强的关键过程，大尺度赤道波也可以改变TC的形成和增强（Feng et al., 2023, Dunkerton et al., 2009）。该研究将研究风暴尺度和大尺度涡旋增强机制，并提高我们对RI潜在过程的理解。

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are amongst the most hazardous severe weather systems in the tropics. Forecasts of TC tracks have improved in recent years (Heming et al., 2016), enabling earlier warnings and allowing better preparations to be made. However, while forecasts of TC intensity from global numerical weather predictions (NWP) models have improved, this has been slower than for track forecasts (De Maria et al., 2014). Forecasting rapid intensification (RI) events, where maximum wind speeds increase by 30 knots in a 24-hour period (Kaplan and DeMaria, 2002), remains challenging Mesoscale processes responsible for RI are not captured by operational global NWP models. Convection-permitting regional models are able to capture these processes better but struggle to predict the timing and magnitude of RI (Short and Petch, 2018). Vortex Rossby waves (e.g., Wang et al., 2002) can be a key process for TC intensification, and large-scale equatorial waves can modify the formation and intensification of TCs too (Feng et al., 2023, Dunkerton et al., 2009). This studentship will investigate storm-scale and large-scale mechanisms for intensifying vortices and improve our understanding of the underlying processes responsible for RI.