Threat assessment of the involuntary celibate (incel) online community: developing a structured professional judgement tool to identify incels at risk

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The incel community (a portmanteau of involuntary celibate) describe themselves as fundamentally unable to find a sexual or romantic relationship despite desiring one - a state known as inceldom. The group is associated with extreme misogyny and a widespread belief that their situation can only be improved by harming the out-group (attractive men or women). Direct incitements of violence against women have led the incel ideology to be described as violent extremism. In recent years, mass violence associated with the incel community has been increasing with over 50 cases since 2014. Additionally, forum users agree that incel-related attacks will become more frequent in the future. The potential for societal harm of the small group of incels who adopt the most violent manifestations of the incel subculture, glorifying incel killers and fantasizing about raping and inflicting violence towards society (Moskalenko et al., 2022) has become increasingly clear. Unfortunately, clinicians, law enforcement, lawmakers and educators are lacking a framework and process whereby those most at risk to society can be distinguished from other more benign incels (who may nevertheless be in need of support and treatment). This thesis will take a mixed-methods approach to improve our understanding of the belief systems, grievances and attitudes of the incel community using validated psychometric tools and interviews with incels at various stages of engagement with the community. The limitations of previous research highlight the need to involve incels themselves in research to gain a holistic formulation of incel experiences and core vulnerabilities. This research will develop a structured professional judgement tool for threat assessment of the incel community to help practitioners discern between incels who are and are not at risk of violence and identify opportunities for early intervention.