A quantitative risk framework to assess the impact of climate change on coal tip stability.

威尔士大约有2500个废弃的煤嘴，其中327个被认为是高风险的。2020年2月，丹尼斯风暴期间的极端降雨导致了几次大型煤矿滑坡。虽然没有人员伤亡报告，但财产损失很大。这些事件突出了这些提示的低安全边际，并引起了对其考虑到气候变化的长期稳定性的担忧。这个项目试图通过改进目前的风险评估来解决这个问题，目前的风险评估是定性的，独立于触发行动。定性风险框架对于确定安全区域是有用的，但在区分另一端的风险方面不是很好。因为所有具有某些特征的地区通常只是被标记为高风险，而没有在高风险类别中显示相对风险。为了安全地修复这些提示，我们需要开发一个风险登记册，以便对提示进行排序，从而在最需要的地方进行投资和后续修复。这种方法需要一个量化框架，这个框架要适合目的，就必须是动态的，并考虑到气候触发因素。该项目的具体目标包括：1.；开发先进的动态定量煤尖评估策略，该策略可以实时响应天气预报，实现主动风险管理，以确保安全。通过整合地理空间测绘技术、岩土技术数据以及当前和预测的气候数据，绘制和预测南威尔士山谷山体滑坡的风险。3. 为该地区建立降雨阈值，以了解在降雨事件的强度和持续时间方面引发该地区山体滑坡的降雨水平。3 .通过比较卫星数字高程模型（DEM）数据与时间的对比，提取体积变化，得到以往滑坡数据，包括发生日期和范围。该项目还试图了解滑坡与其他环境变量（如植被、坡向、土壤水分指数等）的先决条件之间是否存在相关性，并将这些相关性作为启发式方法，为边坡稳定模型提供信息。它将使用历史滑坡和气候观测来校准。总体目标是建立一个模型，该模型可以评估整个地区煤顶条件未来变化的可能性，包括预测可能的滑坡位置和绘制土地扰动的程度，从而能够建立真正的风险登记和积极维护。

Wales has approximately 2500 disused coal tips, including 327 considered high risk. In February 2020, extreme rainfall during Storm Dennis resulted in several large coal tip landslides. Although no casualties were reported, there was extensive damage to property. These events have highlighted the low safety margins of these tips and raised concerns about their long-term stability considering climate change. This project seeks to address this by improving current risk assessments which are currently qualitative and independent of triggering actions. Qualitative risk frameworks are useful for identifying safe regions, but not very good at distinguishing risk at the other end of the scale. As all regions with certain traits are generally just labelled as high risk with no indication of relative risk within the high-risk category. To safely remediate these tips, we need to develop a risk register enabling the ranking of tips thereby enabling investment and subsequent remediation where it is needed most. Such an approach necessitates a quantitative framework, which to be fit for purpose needs to be dynamic and account for climate triggers.Specific aims of this project include:1. The development of an advanced dynamic quantitative coal tip assessment strategy which can produce real-time responses to weather forecasts, enabling active risk management to ensure safety.2. Mapping and forecasting the risk of landslides in the South Wales valleys by integrating geospatial mapping techniques, geotechnical data, and current and predicted climate data. 3. Establish rainfall thresholds for the region to understand the rainfall levels that trigger landslides in the area in terms of both magnitude and duration of the rainfall event. Past landslides data including the dates occurred and the extents, will be obtained by comparing satellite digital elevation model (DEM) data compared time and extracting volume change.4. The project also seeks to understand whether there are any corelations between landslides and the antecedent conditions of the other environmental variables such as vegetation, slope aspect, soil water index etc. and use these correlations as a heuristic to inform a slope stability model. Which will be calibrated using historical landslides and climatic observations. The overall aim is a model which can assess the likelihood of future changes in coal tip conditions across a region including prediction of the possible landslide locations and mapping the extent of the land disturbances enabling the development of a true risk register and active maintenance.