Climate Change-Induced Natural Disasters and Terrorism in Civil Wars

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Climate change and terrorism are widely recognised as two of the most significant contemporary threats to international peace and security. Existing research shows that terrorism is the most intense during active rebellions and civil wars (Belgioioso, 2018; Polo & Gonzales, 2020; Stanton, 2013) and that those nations most susceptible to armed insurrection are typically the least capable of mitigating the effects of a natural disaster (Slettebak, 2012). However, the relationship betweenclimate change-induced natural disasters and terrorism in civil wars remains largely under investigated in existing academic research. With all ten of countries listed by the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) as the most severely impacted by terror in 2022 identified as highly susceptible to ecological crises in the coming year, the urgency of research into these increasingly severe threats is clearly apparent (IFHV, 2022). This project sets out to address this gap in the literature by investigating the intersection of these global security challenges. I theorise that natural disasters will lead to an intensification of terrorism by increasing its strategic viability and decreasing its associated costs in regions already affected by armed insurrections. However, not all areas affected by civil war and climate change-induced natural disasters do witness increased terrorism. For example, the neighbouring Rakhine and Chin States of northern Myanmar both bore ethno-nationalist militants before the nation was struck by cyclone Komen in 2015, and while those in the Chin state abstained from terrorism in the months that followed the tropical storm, the Rakhine state became a regional hotspot for terrorist violence as militants like the Arakan Army and Harakah al-Yaqin initiated attacks across the region. This sub-national variation warrants empirical investigation to understand the conditions under which terrorism becomes a more attractive strategy for armed dissidents. By focusing on different contextual factors that contribute to these variations, my project will be the first to investigate how natural disasters alter the mechanisms that influence rebel tactical choices and lead to terrorist violence. Crucially, while the extant literature overwhelmingly focusses on the effects of natural disasters on intrastate conflict, my specific focus on extremest violence against non-combatants will draw from research on militant radicalisation and terrorism to forge theoretical links between these two anthropogenic threats. Moreover, by illuminating natural disasters as a new factor in rebel tactic selection and terrorist violence I will contribute to the existing peace and conflict studies literature with empirical evidence that quantifies the multifaceted and under researched effects of the climate emergency.