A LINE IN THE SAND: Towards a new framework for sustainable coastal communities

沙中线：建立可持续沿海社区的新框架

• 批准号: 2887072
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Queen Mary University of London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2887072
• 关键词: LINE; SAND; Towards; new; framework

The UK's official advisor on climate change - the Committee on Climate Change - has described the environmental and socioeconomic issues facing the UK's shorelines as a "coastal timebomb". This dramatic assertion stems from three key factors:1) Global climate change will lead to rising sea levels and changing storm patterns that will result in increased UK coastal flooding and accelerated coastal erosion.2) Protection from coastal flooding and erosion is expensive and interferes with important natural processes meaning that it can only be justified for the most developed coastal settlements.3) High levels of deprivation in coastal communities means that there is less capacity for people to build resilience to climate change impacts.The potential problem is huge: the UK's Climate Change Risk Assessment estimated that by 2100 the damages expected from coastal flood risk could increase by 5 times and the number of people exposed to coastal erosion could increase by 30 times.HEADS IN THE SANDWhilst these issues are well-known, current government policies and actions are not adequate to manage these rapidly increasing coastal climate change risks. Indeed, the Committee on Climate Change assesses these policies and actions every two years and they consistently find that the growth of the risks is greater than the potential of new and existing policies to manage those risks. There is a significant "adaptation gap".There are many complicated and intertwined reasons why this is the case. To name a few: the required adaptations are expensive and there is a limited budget; the data on exactly when and where the greatest impacts will occur are uncertain; responsibility for managing the problem is split inelegantly between many organisations; there is a complex patchwork of legislation that has developed over the last 70 years that makes future policy making especially difficult; there are specific coastal issues around insurance, compensation and town planning that cause unique problems; and the likely least-worst responses in some cases will still be incredibly hard to implement technically and socially e.g. managed retreat of coastlines, abandonment of settlements.These are difficult problems to solve but they need to be acknowledged and addressed.TURNING THE TIDEIn close collaboration with our think-tank partner - Policy Connect - this PhD project aims to develop a new, social science driven approach to sustainably assessing and managing coastal risks. We aim to:1) Review and synthesise previous coastal risk assessments, cost-benefit analyses and policy approaches.2) Develop a range of viable coastal adaptation options based on Step 1.3) Test the options from Step 2 with impacted communities and policy experts to develop sustainable adaptation options.4) Apply and improve an innovative approach to visualising coastal adaptation decision making that uses measures of environmental, economic and social factors to identify routes to a sustainable future.A COASTAL PATHWAYStep 4 of this project is the key to unlocking new insights for coastal communities and policy makers regarding the range of options open to them. The technique is called "dynamic adaptation pathways" and it sets out series of risk management, or adaptation, options over time (the pathways) depending on the changing background conditions and on the implications of their previous decisions. Seeing these pathways together allows decisionmakers to understand the long-term implications of the options they chose.

英国官方的气候变化顾问--气候变化委员会--将英国海岸线面临的环境和社会经济问题描述为“沿海定时炸弹”。这一戏剧性的断言源于三个关键因素：1)全球气候变化将导致海平面上升和风暴模式的变化，这将导致英国沿海洪水和加速的海岸侵蚀。2)保护海岸免受洪水和侵蚀的成本高昂，并干扰重要的自然过程，这意味着只有最发达的沿海定居者才有理由这样做。3)沿海社区的高度贫困意味着，人们建立应对气候变化影响的能力较弱。潜在的问题是巨大的：英国的气候变化风险评估估计，到2100年，海岸洪水风险预计造成的损害可能会增加5倍，暴露在海岸侵蚀中的人数可能会增加30倍。目前的政府政策和行动不足以管理这些迅速增加的沿海气候变化风险。事实上，气候变化委员会每两年对这些政策和行动进行一次评估，他们始终发现，风险的增长大于管理这些风险的新政策和现有政策的潜力。这是一个巨大的“适应鸿沟”。造成这种情况的原因有很多，而且错综复杂。仅举几个例子：所需的调整成本高昂，预算有限；关于最大影响将在何时何地发生的数据不确定；管理这一问题的责任由许多组织不雅地分配；过去70年来制定的复杂的立法拼凑在一起，使未来的政策制定特别困难；围绕保险、补偿和城市规划的特定沿海问题造成了独特的问题；在某些情况下，最不糟糕的应对措施在技术和社会上仍将极其困难，例如有管理的海岸线后退，放弃定居点。这些都是难以解决的问题，但它们需要得到承认和解决。TURNING TIDE与我们的智库合作伙伴-政策连接密切合作-这个博士项目旨在开发一种新的、社会科学驱动的方法来可持续地评估和管理沿海风险。我们的目标是：1)审查和综合以前的海岸风险评估、成本效益分析和政策方法。2)基于步骤1.3开发一系列可行的海岸适应方案。与受影响的社区和政策专家一起测试步骤2中的选项，以制定可持续的适应方案。4)应用和改进一种创新的方法，使海岸适应决策可视化，使用环境、经济和社会因素的测量来确定通向可持续未来的途径。该项目的沿海PATHWAYSTEP 4是为沿海社区和政策制定者提供关于他们面临的选择范围的新见解的关键。这项技术被称为“动态适应路径”，它根据不断变化的背景条件及其先前决定的影响，列出了一系列风险管理或适应的选择(路径)。将这些途径放在一起可以让决策者理解他们所选择的选项的长期影响。