Efficient Emulation of Earth System Processes for Adaptation and Mitigation

气候模式模拟器是更复杂的气候模式的简化表示，对IPCC越来越重要。这是因为仿真器可以快速运行，比复杂的地球系统模型（ESM）快得多，并且灵活，例如可以设置为复制现有ESM的大规模行为。这意味着它们可以概率地运行，以采样未来气候变化的全部不确定性，并应用于任何可能的排放情景，而不仅仅是在ESM中分析的少数共享社会经济路径（SSP）。在IPCC关于1.5摄氏度的特别报告（2018年）和第六次评估报告中，针对第1工作组（2021年）和第3工作组（即将于2022年）的贡献使用了振幅脉冲响应（FaIR）模拟器，以提供全球平均温度和辐射强迫预测，并且可以很容易地适应海平面上升。该项目将通过包括目前模型中不存在的地球系统反馈来开发FaIR，例如永久冻土，甲烷湿地和氮循环。这将涉及分析地球系统模型的模拟，并确定一个可以充分复制这些行为的简单框架。这些个别反馈的重要性可以通过将其产出与气专委第三工作组提供的情景数据库进行比较来评估，该工作组的重点是减缓气候变化的途径。此外，为了提供与政策相关的科学，可以将FaIR与区域模拟器结合起来，以确定世界重要地区在不同变暖程度下发生极端天气事件的风险。该奖学金将与气象局的项目和目标密切联系并提供信息，包括哈德利中心气候计划。该项目将直接有助于发展气象局的简单气候建模能力，以便能够对旨在实现巴黎协定目标的新情景进行快速评估。在该项目中，学生将使用软件开发最佳实践来开发模型。作为CASE计划的一部分，有机会花时间在气象局直接与气象局气候影响小组合作。还可能与瑞士和奥地利的外部伙伴合作，将模拟器与综合评估模型联系起来。

Climate model emulators are simplified representations of more complex climate models and are becoming increasingly important to the IPCC. This is because emulators can be run quickly, much faster than complex Earth System models (ESMs), and flexibly, for example to be set up to replicate the large-scale behaviour of existing ESMs. This means they can be run probabilistically to sample the full range of uncertainty in future climate change and be applied to any conceivable emissions scenario and not just the handful of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) that are analysed in ESMs. The Finite-amplitude Impulse Response (FaIR) emulator was used in the IPCC's Special Report on 1.5 degrees Celcius (2018) and Sixth Assessment Report for the contributions of Working Group 1 (2021) and Working Group 3 (forthcoming in 2022) to provide global mean temperature and radiative forcing projections, and can easily be adapted to sea-level rise. This project will develop FaIR by including Earth System feedbacks that are not currently present in the model, such as permafrost, methane wetlands and the nitrogen cycle. This will involve analysing simulations from Earth System models and determining a simple framework that can adequately replicate these behaviours. The importance of these individual feedbacks can be assessed by comparing the outputs to the database of scenarios provided in the IPCC Working Group 3 that focuses on pathways to mitigate climate change. In addition, in order to provide policy-relevant science, FaIR can be coupled to a regional emulator to determine the risks of extreme weather events in important world regions under different levels of warming. This studentship will link closely with and feed into Met Office projects and goals, including the Hadley Centre Climate Programme. The project will directly contribute to developing the Met Office's simple climate modelling capability to be able to provide rapid assessment of new scenarios designed to meet Paris agreement targets. Under the project, the student will use software development best practices to develop the model. As part of the CASE programme there is the opportunity to spend time at the Met Office to work directly with the Met Office Climate Impacts Team. There may also be potential to collaborate with external partners in Switzerland and Austria on linking the emulator to integrated assessment models.