Development of an operational solar wind model based on novel inner boundary conditions

该项目旨在为未来十年开发和评估一个全面的、全自动的空间天气预报能力。我们将基于太阳附近的新边界条件，开发一个高效的环境太阳风和日冕物质抛射（CME）预测模型。该模型将预测整个内太阳系的太阳风/日冕物质抛射的速度和密度，其计算成本甚至是目前最有效的操作模型的一小部分。另一个新颖的方面是利用日冕仪在太阳附近的图像观测得到的边界条件。周围的太阳风边界是由日冕密度层析图驱动的（见https://solarphysics.aber.ac.uk/Archives/tomography/），建立在可操作的SWEEP包（SWIMMR S4项目）的CorTom模块上，以及Kaine Bunting和Huw Morgan最近发表的工作。cme是根据ACME-3D软件的结果注入模型的，该软件最近在Aberystwyth开发（见https://solarphysics.aber.ac.uk/Archives/cme_realtime/，待发表）。对系统性能的综合评估将基于大量的历史数据。

This project aims to develop and assess a comprehensive, fully-automated, space weather forecasting capability for the coming decade. We will develop a highly-efficient forecasting model for ambient solar wind and coronal mass ejections (CME), based on novel boundary conditions near the Sun. The model will forecast solar wind/CME speeds and densities throughout the inner solar system, at a fraction of the computational cost of even the most efficient current operational models. Another novel aspect is the use of boundary conditions gained from coronagraph image observations near the Sun. The ambient solar wind boundary is driven by tomographical maps of the coronal density (see https://solarphysics.aber.ac.uk/Archives/tomography/), building on the CorTom module of the operational SWEEP package (SWIMMR S4 project), and recent published work by Kaine Bunting & Huw Morgan. The CMEs are injected into the model based on the results of the ACME-3D software, recently developed in Aberystwyth (see https://solarphysics.aber.ac.uk/Archives/cme_realtime/, publication pending). A comprehensive assessment of the system's performance will be made on a large set of historical data.