Moist processes and their interaction with storm tracks

大气风暴路径是地球上中纬度天气系统主要增长、演变和衰落的地区。它们与众所周知的中纬度急流密切相关，是热带以外大多数极端天气事件的罪魁祸首。它们的长期预测和它们在未来气候中的行为是大气科学的重大挑战之一。一个关键的不确定性是潜热(水的凝结和蒸发)在风暴路径强度、地理结构和演变中的作用。风暴路径的动力学涉及急流、个别风暴、不同气团、云场和海洋表面之间复杂的、非线性的相互作用。在这个项目中，我们将致力于从动力系统的角度捕捉和理解这些相互作用，动力系统是对最重要的物理相互作用的低阶、非线性描述。例如，早期关于这个主题的工作已经证明，急流和风暴强度之间的相互作用可以描述为一个非线性振荡器，类似于数学生物学中已知的捕食者-猎物系统！在这个项目中，我们将特别关注如何将风暴路径中的潜热结合到这样一个接近风暴路径的动力系统方法中。该项目涉及新的数据分析工具、应用数学和风暴路径的计算机模拟，并为可能的研究重点和发展提供了广泛的途径。其目的是提高我们对风暴路径动力学的了解，并能够对其未来行为做出更有信心的预测。

Atmospheric storm tracks are the regions on earth where midlatitude weather systems predominantly grow, evolve and decay. They are strongly associated with the well-known midlatitude jet streams and are responsible for the majority of extreme weather events away from the tropics. Their longer-term prediction and their behaviour in a future climate is one of the great challenges of atmospheric science. A key uncertainty is the role of latent heating (condensation and evaporation of water) in the setting of the intensity of the storm track, its geographical structure, and its evolution.The dynamics of the storm track involves a complex, non-linear interplay between the jet stream, individual storms, different air masses, cloud fields, and the ocean surface. In this project we will work on capturing and understanding those interplays in terms of a dynamical system, a low-order, non-linear description of the most important physical interactions. As an example, earlier work on this topic has demonstrated that the interplay between the jet stream and storm intensity can be described as a non-linear oscillator, similar to a predator -- prey system known from mathematical biology!In this project we will particularly focus on how latent heating in the storm track can be incorporated in such a dynamical systems approach to the storm track. The project involves novel data analysis tools, applied mathematics, and computer simulations of the storm track, and provides a broad avenue of possible research foci and developments.The aim is to improve our understanding of the dynamics of the storm track and be able to make more confident predictions of their future behaviour.