West Nile Virus transmission risk from environmental, animal and human surveillance data

环境、动物和人类监测数据显示西尼罗河病毒传播风险

• 批准号: 2892668
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Imperial College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2892668
• 关键词: West; Nile; Virus; transmission; risk

West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging mosquito-borne zoonosis and a growing public health concern in the changing climate. WNV is maintained in an avian-mosquito transmission cycle and occasionally spills over into humans who are dead-end hosts. About 80% of WNV infections in humans are asymptomatic but around 1% develop fatal neuro-invasive disease. Because human-to-human transmission can occur via organ or blood transplant, WNV circulation is closely monitored in Europe during each season for blood safety. In the absence of a vaccine and antiviral treatment against WNV in humans, surveillance is the main form of disease control. As climate changes, we urgently need to better understand WNV hosts' responses to the environment to forecast, and so control, this disease.This interdisciplinary project combines computational and lab-work and aims at (i) forecasting WNV transmission from high-resolution environmental, entomological, ornithological, and human surveillance data collected in Italy; (ii) characterizing temperature dependencies in European Culex mosquito dynamics and (iii) updating a WNV human transmission risk map for Europe.In (i) we will estimate WNV prevalence in Culex mosquitoes from trap data and investigate its association with ornithological and environmental data collected weekly over 2013 - 2021 in Emilia-Romagna (Italy). We will use a suite of statistical approaches including spatiotemporal Bayesian mixed-effects models, machine and deep learning applied to observed climate data and, in a separate analysis, past weather forecast data. These data are provided through an existing collaboration between Imperial College London, IZSLER (https://www.izsler.it/), ARPAE (https://www.arpae.it/en) and FEM (https://www.fmach.it/eng).In (ii) we will fill current knowledge gaps on the effect of temperature on European Culex mosquito traits by conducting lab experiments to characterise blood-feeding behaviour (e.g., the duration of the gonotrophic cycle, the period between a blood meal and oviposition and the biting rate) from controlled temperature conditions.In (iii), we will use the relationships obtained from (ii) and other covariates of interest from a literature review to develop mathematical and statistical models linking observed historical time series of human WNV cases reported in Europe by ECDC (https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en) with spatially and temporally matched climate and environmental data (https://pearselab.github.io/areadata/), to generate an updated map of WNV human transmission risk across Europe.

西尼罗河病毒（WNV）是一种新出现的蚊媒人畜共患病，在气候变化中日益成为公共卫生问题。西尼罗河病毒维持在一个鸟类-蚊子传播周期，偶尔会溢出到人类谁是死胡同主机。大约80%的人类西尼罗河病毒感染是无症状的，但大约1%的人发展为致命的神经侵入性疾病。由于人与人之间的传播可以通过器官或血液移植发生，因此欧洲在每个季节都密切监测西尼罗河病毒的循环，以确保血液安全。在没有针对人类西尼罗河病毒的疫苗和抗病毒治疗的情况下，监测是疾病控制的主要形式。随着气候变化，我们迫切需要更好地了解西尼罗河病毒宿主对环境的反应，以预测和控制这种疾病。这个跨学科的项目结合了计算和实验室工作，旨在（i）从意大利收集的高分辨率环境，昆虫，鸟类和人类监测数据预测西尼罗河病毒的传播;（ii）描述欧洲库蚊动态中的温度依赖性，以及（iii）更新欧洲西尼罗河病毒人类传播风险图。我们将从诱捕器数据中估计库蚊中的西尼罗河病毒流行率，并调查其与2013 - 2021年在埃米利亚-罗马涅每周收集的鸟类和环境数据的关联（意大利）。我们将使用一套统计方法，包括时空贝叶斯混合效应模型，应用于观测到的气候数据的机器和深度学习，以及在单独的分析中，过去的天气预报数据。这些数据是通过帝国理工学院伦敦、ICPULER（https：//www.izsler.it/）、ARPAE（https：//www.arpae.it/en）和FEM（https：//www.fmach.it/eng）之间的现有合作提供的。在（ii）中，我们将通过进行实验室实验来验证吸血行为（例如，在（iii）中，我们将使用从（ii）中获得的关系和来自文献综述的其他相关协变量，开发数学和统计模型，将ECDC报告的欧洲人类WNV病例的观察历史时间序列联系起来（https：//www.ecdc.europa.eu/en）与空间和时间匹配的气候和环境数据（https：//pearselab.github.io/areadata/），以生成整个欧洲的西尼罗河病毒人类传播风险的更新地图。