Investigating the potential for West Nile virus outbreaks in the United Kingdom using a mathematical epidemiological model

使用数学流行病学模型调查西尼罗河病毒在英国爆发的可能性

• 批准号: 2427778
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Warwick
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2427778
• 关键词: Investigating; potential; West; Nile; virus

West Nile virus (WNV) is now the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental US and is an emerging threat in Europe. It appears to be expanding in its geographical range in Europe and causing increasing numbers of outbreaks associated with human morbidity and mortality.In 1996, the first large outbreak of WNV was observed in Europe, in Romania with high numbers of human and equine cases and a high fatality rate. Since then, outbreaks began occurring frequently in Hungary, Romania, Greece, the Czech Republic and Russia. More recently, almost all Eastern, Central and Southern European countries report annual re-emergence of the virus, and Western European countries are also beginning to experience sporadic outbreaks too.Inevitably, climate change is improving the habitat suitability of the environment for mosquitos to reside in, enabling a greater distribution of competent vectors and driving the spread of the disease.This research aims to address the question, how will the UK be affected by West Nile virus? Recent research has suggested it is only a matter of time before the first WNV case emerges in the UK, and it is important to understand how and where the virus might surface if control and mitigation strategies are going to be implemented.This project proposes to develop a mathematical model to explore outbreaks of WNV in the UK, by using available data from European outbreaks and the recent Usutu virus emergence in the UK. The work will address several aims: assessing the most suitable habitat for the emergence of WNV in the UK, exploring how extensive an outbreak could potentially be in the UK, and assessing the efficacy of possible control strategies if an outbreak were to occur.

西尼罗河病毒（WNV）现在是美国大陆蚊媒疾病的主要原因，也是欧洲的一个新威胁。它似乎正在扩大其在欧洲的地理范围，并造成与人类发病率和死亡率有关的越来越多的疫情。1996年，在欧洲罗马尼亚观察到第一次西尼罗河病毒大暴发，出现大量人和马病例，死亡率很高。从那时起，疫情开始在匈牙利、罗马尼亚、希腊、捷克共和国和俄罗斯频繁发生。最近，几乎所有东欧、中欧和南欧国家每年都报告病毒再次出现，西欧国家也开始出现零星疫情。不可避免的是，气候变化正在改善蚊子栖息环境的适宜性，使有能力的病媒能够更广泛地分布，并推动疾病的传播。这项研究的目的是解决这个问题，英国将如何受到西尼罗河病毒的影响？最近的研究表明，在英国出现第一例西尼罗河病毒病例只是时间问题，如果要实施控制和缓解策略，了解病毒可能如何以及在哪里出现是很重要的。该项目建议建立一个数学模型，通过使用欧洲疫情和最近英国出现的Usutu病毒的可用数据来探索英国的西尼罗河病毒疫情。这项工作将解决几个目标：评估在英国出现西尼罗河病毒的最合适栖息地，探索在英国爆发疫情的潜在范围，以及评估如果爆发疫情可能采取的控制策略的有效性。