Investigating the potential for West Nile virus outbreaks in the United Kingdom using a mathematical epidemiological model

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West Nile virus (WNV) is now the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental US and is an emerging threat in Europe. It appears to be expanding in its geographical range in Europe and causing increasing numbers of outbreaks associated with human morbidity and mortality.In 1996, the first large outbreak of WNV was observed in Europe, in Romania with high numbers of human and equine cases and a high fatality rate. Since then, outbreaks began occurring frequently in Hungary, Romania, Greece, the Czech Republic and Russia. More recently, almost all Eastern, Central and Southern European countries report annual re-emergence of the virus, and Western European countries are also beginning to experience sporadic outbreaks too.Inevitably, climate change is improving the habitat suitability of the environment for mosquitos to reside in, enabling a greater distribution of competent vectors and driving the spread of the disease.This research aims to address the question, how will the UK be affected by West Nile virus? Recent research has suggested it is only a matter of time before the first WNV case emerges in the UK, and it is important to understand how and where the virus might surface if control and mitigation strategies are going to be implemented.This project proposes to develop a mathematical model to explore outbreaks of WNV in the UK, by using available data from European outbreaks and the recent Usutu virus emergence in the UK. The work will address several aims: assessing the most suitable habitat for the emergence of WNV in the UK, exploring how extensive an outbreak could potentially be in the UK, and assessing the efficacy of possible control strategies if an outbreak were to occur.