Extreme Heat and Inequity: Assessing Cooling Poverty, Exposure, and Root Causes

到2050年，气候变化和由此导致的极端高温预计将使降温需求增加两倍。在这一背景下，无法获得负担得起的降温，也就是广泛地说是降温贫困，是一个重大但总体上未得到充分探讨的问题。此外，由于缺乏应对不断降温的贫困的不同层面的办法，在颗粒层面确定关键热点和脆弱性程度变得具有挑战性。这项研究旨在解决在不同尺度上冷却能源贫困的一个根本问题：正在冷却的贫困热点存在于哪里，谁最脆弱，以及为什么这种贫困持续存在？回答这个问题的第一部分将侧重于确定在全球变暖1.5摄氏度和2摄氏度的情况下，全球贫困降温的高风险地区。这些地区将通过将冷却度日(CDD)的预测与人口和GDP数据整合并绘制地图来确定，这些数据由共享的社会经济路径(SSP)提供信息。这项研究的第二部分将侧重于确定谁是最脆弱的，以及如何从表征降温脆弱性的关键因素中得出指数。一份全面的文献综述将介绍所考察的冷却贫困的各个维度，这些维度将被纳入一个新的冷却能源贫困指数(CEPI)。然后，CEPI将应用于高风险区域，以定位和描述区域一级的特定热点。这项研究的第三部分也是最后一部分，从之前的宏观层面的定量方法，到微观层面的定性检查，对选定的热点地区进行研究，以研究为什么最脆弱的人经历了冷却贫困的经历，以及普遍存在的战略如何影响这些脆弱性。这项定性调查将使用通过调查、研讨会和访谈收集的二手数据和主要数据来回答这些问题。总而言之，这项研究将对世界产生积极影响，通过建立一种理解，从而识别、描述和减轻冷却能源贫困，特别是考虑到极端高温威胁的多个可持续发展目标。利用牛津·马丁学院未来冷却计划和史密斯学校企业与环境的跨学科专业知识，该项目体现了EPSRC在跨学科研究中合作的承诺。研究与EPSRC的重点领域一致，特别是与“最终用途能源需求”及其子主题“热研究”、“能源需求”和“数字和信息技术”保持一致。该项目将在这些研究主题中作出重大而深远的贡献，通过确定高风险地区、制定衡量脆弱性的指数以及审查贫困正在降温的根本原因，对正在降温的贫困进行全面评估。本质上，该项目不仅涉及可持续冷却的一个重要方面，而且还有助于了解气候变化背景下未来能源需求的维度，与EPSRC的战略研究优先事项保持一致。

Climate change and resulting rising extreme heat are projected to triple the demand for cooling by 2050. Within this context, the lack of access to affordable cooling, broadly referred to as cooling poverty, presents a significant yet holistically under-explored issue. Furthermore, with the lack of approaches that tackle the different dimensions of cooling poverty, it has become challenging to identify critical hotspots and the degree of vulnerability at a granular level. This research aims to address a fundamental question on cooling energy poverty across different scales: where do the cooling poverty hotspots exist, who are the most vulnerable, and why does such poverty persist? The first part of answering this question will focus on identifying the global high-risk regions for cooling poverty in a 1.5- and 2-degree warming world. These regions will be identified by integrating and mapping projections of cooling degree days (CDDs) with population and GDP data, informed by shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). The data used, from climateprediction.net, is among the most granular available in terms of spatio-temporal detail.The second part of the study will focus on identifying who are the most vulnerable and how can an index be derived from key factors that characterise cooling vulnerability. A comprehensive literature review will inform the dimensions of cooling poverty examined, which will be integrated into a novel Cooling Energy Poverty Index (CEPI). CEPI will then be applied to the high-risk regions to locate and characterise specific hotspots at a regional level. The third and final part of the study progresses from previous macro-level quantitative approaches to a micro-level qualitative examination of the selected hotspots to study why do the most vulnerable experience cooling poverty, and how do prevalent strategies affect these vulnerabilities. This qualitative investigation will use both secondary data and primary data collected via surveys, workshops, and interviews to answer these questions. Together, the research will make a positive impact to the world by developing an understanding that leads to identifying, characterizing, and mitigating cooling energy poverty, particularly in light of the multiple sustainable development goals that extreme heat threatens. Leveraging the interdisciplinary expertise from the Oxford Martin School's Future of Cooling Programme and Smith School Enterprise and Environment, the project embodies EPSRC's commitment to collaborate in cross-disciplinary research.The research aligns with the EPSRC focus areas, particularly with "end-use energy demand" and with its sub-themes of "heat research," "energy demand" and "'digital and information technologies." The project will make a significant and far-reaching contribution in these research themes through its holistic approach in assessing the cooling poverty by identifying high-risk regions, developing an index to measure vulnerability, and examining the underlying causes of cooling poverty. In essence, this project not only addresses a vital aspect of sustainable cooling but also contributes significantly to understanding the dimensions of future energy demand in the context of climate change, aligning with EPSRC's strategic research priorities.