Understand the uncertainties and their effects in future human-machine engineering systems

“不确定性存在于产品设计、制造、运营和回收的每一个环节。不确定性会对新产品的成功、生产系统的质量和生产率以及服务/产品性能产生重大影响。在最近的大流行期间，这一点非常明显，供应链中断、需求变化和劳动力短缺等巨大的不确定性同时发生，导致生产力大幅下降，甚至工程系统崩溃。最近的工业战略研讨会显示，英国制造业还没有模型或工具来处理不确定性，尽管许多企业已经将不确定性视为对其盈利能力的日益威胁。智能人机系统是利用新发展的计算能力和人工智能实现集成产品设计和过程系统的新范式。但是，需要了解此类系统中的不确定性，并应在早期设计/规划阶段对其影响进行定性或定量的预评估，以便建立风险缓解战略并将其嵌入工程系统，以避免因“不透明”系统而产生的陷阱。本项目旨在了解不确定性（如材料的价格变化和设计师的偏好）及其在未来人机工程系统中的影响。这将是一个正在进行的大型项目的一部分，该项目旨在重新想象设计工程，以便快速产生新的想法和概念，并且产品及其相关的制造系统（包括其供应链和人员）同时设计并完全相互定制。有关RIED项目的更多细节可在以下网站查阅：https://riedesign.org/The本项目将开发以下工作包。识别和分类我们新开发的人机工程系统中的不确定性2。调查和创建不确定性传播模型，并评估对产品/生产/供应链绩效指标的影响。制定风险缓解战略，并将该战略纳入现有系统。

"Uncertainty occurs in every step of product design, manufacturing, operation and recycling. Uncertainties can bring significant impacts to the success of new products, quality and productivity of production systems, and service / product performance. This is very evident during the recent pandemic, in which formidable uncertainties such as disruptions of supply chain, changing demand and lack of workforce occurred all at once, leading to dramatic reduction of productivity or even collapse of engineering systems. A recent Industrial strategy workshop revealed that UK manufacturing industry has no models or tools yet to deal with uncertainties, although many enterprises have taken uncertainties as an increasing threat to their profitability. Intelligent human-machine systems are a new paradigm for realising integrated product design and process systems utilising newly developed computing power and AI. However, uncertainties in such systems need be understood and their effects should be pre-evaluated qualitatively or quantitively at early design/planning stage, so that a risk mitigation strategy can be established and embedded in the engineering system, in order to avoid the pitfalls resulted from the 'untransparent' system.This project aims to understand the uncertainties (e.g. price variations of materials, and designer's preference) and their effects in future human-machine engineering systems. This will be part of an ongoing large project which aims to Re-Imagine Design Engineering so that new ideas and concepts are generated rapidly, and where both the product and its associated manufacturing system (including its supply chain and people) are designed concurrently and fully tailored to each other. More details of the RIED project are available at: https://riedesign.org/The following work packages will be developed in this project.1. Identify and classify uncertainties in our newly developed human-machine engineering system2. Investigate and create uncertainty propagation models and evaluate the effect on performance metrics in product/production/supply chain 3. Develop a risk mitigation strategy and integrate the strategy into existing systems"