Solar Forecasting And Future Sustainable Power Systems

光伏能源对发电组合的贡献持续增长。2020年英国的装机容量为13.4GW，预计到2030年将增加到40GW。加快采用太阳能将对输电和配电系统提出重大挑战，因为太阳能发电是不可调度的，因此将其作为发电组合的主要组成部分需要准确预测太阳能发电量。为了解决这个问题，拟议项目旨在提高太阳辐射预测的准确性，从而提高我们对太阳能发电及其对电网影响的认识。博士生将专注于开发一个经济模型，随着时间的推移电价变化，考虑到太阳能系统的电力供应受太阳能可用性的影响。随后，他们将制定为最终用户购买和销售太阳能电力的最佳策略。第1年：对当前电网运营策略和最终用户购买和销售电力所使用的模型进行文献综述。第2年：制定与最终用户购买和销售太阳能电力相关的最佳策略的初始模型，并结合改进的太阳能预测数据。完善和完成开发的模型，以确保最佳的性能和可用性。第四年：论文写作。

The contribution of PV energy to the electricity generation mix continues to grow. Installed capacity in the UK in 2020 was 13.4 GW and is expected to increase to 40 GW by 2030. Accelerating the adoption of solar energy will present significant challenges to the electricity transmission and distribution system, as solar power is not dispatchable and therefore its incorporation as a major element of the generation mix requires the accurate prediction of solar energy production.To address this issue, the proposed project aims to enhance the forecasting accuracy of solar radiation, thereby improving our understanding of solar power generation and its impact on the grid. The PhD student will focus on developing an economic model for electricity price variation over time, considering the availability of electricity from the solar system as influenced by solar availability. Subsequently, they will develop optimal strategies for purchasing and selling solar electricity for end users.Year 1: Conduct a literature review of current grid operation strategies and the models utilised by end users for purchasing and selling electricity.Year 2: Develop the initial model for optimal strategies concerning the purchase and sale of solar electricity for end users, incorporating improved solar forecasting data.Year 3: Refine and finalise the developed model to ensure optimal performance and usability.Year 4: Thesis writing up.