Saving Motives After Retirement

退休后的储蓄动机

• 批准号: 7382791
• 负责人: John Bailey Jones
• 金额: $ 6.2万
• 依托单位: STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT ALBANY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2008-02-15 至 2010-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7382791
• 关键词: Accounting; Affect; Age; Aged, 80 and over; Behavior; Data; Data Set; Elderly; Face; Goals; Health; Household; Income; Left; Life Cycle Stages; Life Expectancy; Longevity; Low income; Medicaid; Medical; Methods; Modeling; Numbers; Pattern; Policies; Rate; Recommendation; Relative (related person); Retirement; Savings; Simulate; Social Protection; Social Security; Specific qualifier value; Supplemental Security Income; Taxes; Writing; programs; research study

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Most analyses of the elderly's saving behavior use versions of the life cycle model that cannot replicate two key facts in the data: first, some households keep large amounts of assets even when very old; and second, people with high lifetime income save at a higher rate than those with low lifetime income. The objective of this project is to construct a richer version of the life cycle model that can reconcile both of these observations, estimate the parameters of the model from the Assets and Health Dynamics of the Oldest Old (AHEAD) dataset, and use the model to evaluate policy reforms such as abolishing the estate tax or changing Social Security benefits. Within this proposed model, several savings motives coexist: households save both to self-insure against uncertain longevity and medical expenses, and to leave bequests. The model contains several other important features. Uncertain rates of return affect both expected and realized asset accumulation. The model accounts for social insurance programs such as Supplemental Security Income and Medicaid. Poor and rich people have different life expectancies, and household survival dynamics are explicitly modeled. The model's parameters will be estimated from the AHEAD dataset, using the method of simulated moments. The model will be required to match separate age-asset profiles at different levels of lifetime income, forcing it to replicate observed differences between high and low-income households. Once the model has been estimated, it will be used to assess empirically the relative importance of its competing features, and to perform a variety of policy experiments. Project Narrative: The goal of this project is to construct and estimate a rich model of post- retirement saving that better describes the saving patterns of the elderly. Within our proposed model, elderly households would face uncertain longevity and out-of-pocket medical expenses, but would also receive financial protection from social insurance programs such as Medicaid. Modeling all of these features will allow us to study how medical concerns affect the saving of the elderly, and to analyze the savings impact of various medical policy proposals.

描述（由申请人提供）：大多数对老年人储蓄行为的分析都使用生命周期模型的版本，该模型无法复制数据中的两个关键事实：首先，一些家庭即使在很老的时候也保留大量资产;第二，终身收入高的人比终身收入低的人储蓄率更高。本项目的目标是构建一个更丰富的生命周期模型，该模型可以协调这两个观察结果，从最老老人的资产和健康动态（AHEAD）数据集估计模型的参数，并使用该模型评估政策改革，如取消遗产税或改变社会保障福利。在这个模型中，几种储蓄动机并存：家庭储蓄既是为了对不确定的寿命和医疗费用进行自我保险，也是为了留下遗产。该模型还包含其他几个重要特征。不确定的回报率影响预期和实现的资产积累。该模型考虑了社会保险计划，如补充保障收入和医疗补助。穷人和富人有不同的预期寿命，家庭生存动态是明确的模型。该模型的参数将估计从AHEAD数据集，使用模拟矩的方法。该模型将需要在不同的终身收入水平上匹配单独的年龄-资产概况，迫使其复制高收入家庭和低收入家庭之间观察到的差异。一旦对模型进行了估计，就将用它来从经验上评估其竞争性特征的相对重要性，并进行各种政策试验。 项目叙述： 本项目的目标是构建和评估一个更好地描述老年人储蓄模式的退休后储蓄丰富模型。在我们提出的模型中，老年家庭将面临不确定的寿命和自付医疗费用，但也将获得医疗补助等社会保险计划的经济保护。对所有这些特征进行建模将使我们能够研究医疗问题如何影响老年人的储蓄，并分析各种医疗政策建议的储蓄影响。