Automating Simulation Output Analysis (AutoSimOA):Selection of Warm-up, Replications and Run-Length

自动仿真输出分析 (AutoSimOA)：选择预热、复制和运行长度

• 批准号: EP/D033640/1
• 负责人: Stewart Robinson
• 金额: $ 20.16万
• 依托单位: University of Warwick
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2006 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FD033640%2F1
• 关键词: Automating; Simulation; Output; Analysis; AutoSimOA

Simulation models are used in many organisations for planning and better managing organisational systems e.g. manufacturing plant or service operations. A key part of the process of developing and using a simulation model is to experiment with the model. In order to obtain accurate measures of a model's performance care must be taken to obtain sufficient good data from the model. Particular issues are removing initialisation bias, running the model for long enough and performing sufficient replications (runs with different streams of random numbers). Decisions regarding these issues require statistical skills which many simulation modellers do not possess. As a result, many simulation models may be used poorly and incorrect conclusions reached. This research aims to develop an 'analyser' that will automatically analyse the output from a simulation model and advise the simulation modeller on an appropriate warm-up period, run-length and number of replications. In the first stage of the research existing methods for analysing simulation output will be tested to identify candidate methods for inclusion in the analyser. Candidate methods will then be adapted where necessary to make them suitable for automation. In the final stage of the research a prototype analyser will be developed and tested. The methods and analyser will be tested on example data, using real simulation models and with simulation users.

仿真模型在许多组织中用于规划和更好地管理组织系统，例如制造工厂或服务运营。开发和使用仿真模型的过程中的一个关键部分是对模型进行实验。为了获得模型性能的准确测量，必须注意从模型中获得足够好的数据。特别的问题是消除初始化偏差，运行模型足够长的时间并执行足够的复制（使用不同的随机数流运行）。关于这些问题的决定需要统计技能，许多模拟建模不具备。因此，许多模拟模型可能会使用不当，并得出不正确的结论。本研究的目的是开发一个“分析器”，将自动分析从仿真模型的输出，并建议仿真建模适当的预热期，运行长度和重复次数。在研究的第一阶段，将对现有的模拟输出分析方法进行测试，以确定列入分析仪的候选方法。候选方法将在必要时进行调整，使其适合自动化。在研究的最后阶段，将开发和测试原型分析仪。将使用真实的仿真模型和仿真用户对示例数据测试方法和分析器。