A Panel Study of Elderly vs Nonelderly Migration Flows and State Fiscal Policy

描述（由申请人提供）：拟议的研究考虑了两个主要问题-什么因素影响老年人的位置决定，以及这些迁移行为如何随着时间的推移而变化？拟议的研究提供了两个重要的改进，在过去的研究：1）一个更彻底的检查的作用，国家财政政策，特别是国家所得税优惠的老年人，和2）使用面板移民流量数据，从四个人口普查（1970-2000年），为老年人和非老年人。实证分析估计，这些年来的移民流量作为一个功能的特点，包括国家的财政政策，发送国和接收国。丰富的移民数据有助于包括大量的政策变量，并使我们能够对未观察到的目的地，原籍国甚至流动效应进行计量经济学建模。这一分析使我们能够看到政策的变化如何导致迁移行为的变化，从而更好地隔离了国家特征对老年人迁移的影响。重复非老年人移民的分析，使我们能够确定这些因素对老年人（而不是非老年人）迁移的不同影响。一个补充的，描述性的分析，使用的CNOMS将提供洞察如何组成（例如，老年移徙者的健康、富裕、年龄和其他“生命历程”特征）在此期间发生了变化，并受到国家特征的影响。这项研究的另外两个副产品是对老年人所得税优惠的演变的全面说明，以及对老年人和非老年人移民流动和走廊（两个州之间的个人流动）如何随时间变化的描述性分析。老年人移民以及由此产生的人口结构变化可能会对各州的公共医疗保健系统和财政状况产生严重影响。由于老年人所得税优惠和遗产/继承税法的变化，估计州收入损失很大。随着人口老龄化，这些损失使各州更难解决公共卫生保健系统的压力。美国整体人口的老龄化和各州日益增长的财政作用加剧了这一动态。这项研究增加了我们对这些政策及其对州人口统计学的影响的理解，这对于制定解决美国老龄化人口的需求，医疗保健和其他方面的政策至关重要。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The proposed research considers two main questions -- what factors influence the location decisions of the elderly and how have these migration behaviors changed over time? The proposed research offers two important improvements over past studies: 1) a more thorough examination of the role of state fiscal policy, especially state income tax preferences for the elderly, and 2) the use of panel migration flow data, from four censuses (1970-2000), for the elderly and nonelderly. The empirical analysis estimates the migration flows over these years as a function of the characteristics, including state fiscal policy, of the sending and receiving states. The rich migration data facilitates including a large set of policy variables and permits us to model econometrically unobserved destination, origin and even flow effects. This analysis allows us to see how changes in policy lead to changes in migration behavior, which better isolates the effects of state characteristics on elderly migration. Repeating the analysis for nonelderly migration allows us to identify the differential effects of these factors on elderly (as opposed to nonelderly) migration. A supplemental, descriptive analysis using the PUMS will provide insight into how the composition (e.g., health, affluence, age and other 'life-course' attributes) of elderly migrants has changed during this period and been influenced by state characteristics. Two additional byproducts of this research are a full accounting of the evolution of state income tax preferences for the elderly and a descriptive analysis of how elderly and nonelderly migration flows and corridors (the movement of individuals between two states) have changed over time. Elderly migration and the resulting change in demographics can have serious implications for states' public health care systems and fiscal well-being. Estimated state revenue losses due to elderly income tax preferences and changes to estate/inheritance tax laws are substantial. Such losses make it more difficult for states to address the strain on their public health care systems as their populations age. The aging of the overall U.S. population and the growing fiscal role of the states exacerbates this dynamic. This research adds to our understanding of these policies and their effects on state demographics, which is critical to devising policies that address the demands, health care and otherwise, of an aging U.S. population.