New Directions in Migration Modeling

迁移建模的新方向

• 批准号: 7408213
• 负责人: Joshua M. Epstein
• 金额: $ 0.6万
• 依托单位: BROOKINGS INSTITUTION
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-12-05 至 2008-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7408213
• 关键词: Affect; Costs and Benefits; Economics; Educational workshop; Epidemiology; Equation; Equilibrium; Exhibits; Face; Family; Hand; Health; Health Policy; Immigration; Individual; Institution; Intervention; Joints; Methodology; Modeling; Population Distributions; Process; Public Health; Public Policy; Purpose; Research; Risk; Social Network; Social Sciences; Testing; base; design; expectation; health economics; infectious disease model; insight; member; migration; social; tool

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Agent-based modeling has fundamentally changed the face of social science and is being vigorously applied in public health, where, for example, ABMs have already displaced differential equations as the methodology of choice in large-scale infectious disease modeling. However, unlike the growing field of epidemiology, migration is as yet largely untouched by this new and important tool. This seems particularly unfortunate since migration would appear to exhibit features that have proven amenable to agent- based approaches: individuals are heterogeneous (e.g., in risk aversion); they are situated in social networks and form expectations about migration benefits and costs from imperfect information from other network members (e.g., family)-that is, they are boundedly rational. Migration is obviously a spatial process, and (particularly when one includes re-migration) is a decidedly non-equilibrium one. These are precisely the hallmarks of problems suitable for "bottom up" agent modeling. Therefore, since evidence suggests that changes in population distribution due to migration affect many health factors, the Center on Social and Economic Dynamics (CSED) proposes to host a daylong workshop at the Brookings Institution to assemble leading migration experts on the one hand, and leading agent-based modelers on the other, with the concrete purpose of designing a truly joint applied health-related research agenda going forward. Evidence suggests that changes in population distribution due to migration affect many important demographic, social, economic, and health factors. Therefore, advances in migration study can potentially offer new insights for health policy associated with migration-induced change. Agent-based Modeling of migration may assist in this task, and potentially provide public policy leaders an important tool to analyze and possibly test public policy interventions.

描述（由申请人提供）：基于代理的建模从根本上改变了社会科学的面貌，并正在大力应用于公共卫生，其中，例如，ABM已经取代微分方程作为大规模传染病建模的方法选择。然而，与日益扩大的流行病学领域不同的是，这一新的重要工具基本上尚未触及移徙问题。这似乎特别不幸，因为迁移似乎表现出已被证明适合基于代理的方法的特征：个体是异质的（例如，风险规避）;它们位于社交网络中并且根据来自其他网络成员的不完全信息形成关于迁移收益和成本的预期（例如，他们是一群理性的人。移徙显然是一个空间过程，而且（特别是当一个过程包括再移徙时）肯定是一个非平衡过程。这些正是适合于“自下而上”代理建模的问题的特征。因此，由于有证据表明，人口分布的变化，由于移徙影响到许多健康因素，社会和经济动态中心（CSED）建议主办一个为期一天的研讨会在布鲁金斯研究所聚集领先的移民专家一方面，另一方面，领先的代理为基础的建模，与设计一个真正的联合应用健康相关的研究议程前进的具体目的。有证据表明，移徙造成的人口分布变化影响到许多重要的人口、社会、经济和健康因素。因此，移民研究的进展可能为与移民引起的变化相关的卫生政策提供新的见解。基于代理的移民建模可能有助于这项任务，并可能提供公共政策领导人的一个重要工具，分析和可能测试公共政策干预。