Inferring HIV transmission networks from time-resolved viral phylogenies for epidemiological modelling

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The HIV epidemic in the UK is growing, both among heterosexuals, which is a relatively new epidemic, and again among gay men, where new infections had previously stabilised. This proposal is intended to develop methods for finding out in what settings most new infections occur. We will use anonymised data on viral sequences to discover whether HIV transmission occurs steadily over time, or whether it occurs in bursts, through networks. Early studies suggest networks are important, so we need to be able to identify the key settings. We will do this by using a computer program which describes ( models ) the epidemic as far as we understand it, including settings such as bars, gyms and the internet, where people can meet sexual partners. The model will allow information from the viral sequence data to help us to predict which will be the most effective links to target to reduce new infections.