An operational UK air-sea carbon flux observation capability (CARBON-OPS)

大气中二氧化碳的浓度处于过去65万年来的最高水平，甚至可能是过去1500万年来的最高水平。海洋是最大的碳天然储存库之一，自1800年以来，通过吸收所有人类活动释放的约一半二氧化碳，海洋缓冲了大气中积累的二氧化碳数量的变化。然而，海洋未来的二氧化碳吸收速率是未知的，也很难理解，因为它依赖于几个相关的过程(例如，变暖、盐度、植物生长、混合、颗粒从表层向深水下沉)。我们确实知道，海洋吸收二氧化碳的驱动力是海洋和大气之间二氧化碳浓度的差异。这被测量为二氧化碳分压的差值，称为二氧化碳分压。随着大气中二氧化碳浓度的持续上升，预计到本世纪中叶，表层海洋中的二氧化碳浓度将增加到工业化前的两倍。再加上气温的上升，这种增加可能会导致海洋对二氧化碳的吸收放缓，导致更多的二氧化碳在大气中积累，并可能加速全球变暖。海洋中二氧化碳水平增加的一个主要后果是，表层海水将变得(略微)更酸性，这可能对海洋生物和生态系统产生深远影响。作为《京都议定书》的签署国，英国做出了到2012年减少碳排放的具有法律约束力的承诺。这一承诺的一部分要求英国跟踪并预测自然吸收二氧化碳的地区(自然汇)的变化，如果可能的话。监测海洋表层二氧化碳浓度的变化以及海洋和大气之间的二氧化碳交换可以为海洋吸收二氧化碳能力的变化以及由此产生的气候变化提供早期预警。用于预测海洋过程和生态系统变化的计算机模型为实时监测和预测海洋中与二氧化碳有关的变化提供了可能性。对表层海洋中二氧化碳的测量对于检验这些模型的预测至关重要。该提案描述了一条自动测量海洋表面二氧化碳含量的“供应链”，对其进行处理，并将其用于向政府机构提供信息。数据将由英国科考船上的新二氧化碳测量系统收集。它们将通过卫星短信将测量数据近乎实时地发送到英国海洋数据中心，在那里它们将被自动处理、质量控制和存档。然后，这些数据将被提交给英国气象局，用于测试其海洋模型的预测。这些模型将通过提供有关海洋吸收二氧化碳的量以及对全球气候、海洋酸度和海洋生态系统健康的相关影响的信息来帮助英国政府。

Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) are at their highest level for the past 650,000 years, and possibly the past 15 million years. The ocean is one of the largest natural reservoirs of carbon and has buffered changes in the amount of CO2 accumulating in the atmosphere by absorbing about one half of the CO2 released from all human activities since 1800. However, the ocean's future CO2 absorption rate is unknown and complex to understand because it relies on several related processes (e.g. warming, saltiness, plant growth, mixing, sinking of particles from the surface to deep waters). We do know that the driver for the ocean's absorption of CO2 is the difference in the concentration of CO2 between the ocean and the atmosphere. This is measured as the difference in 'partial pressure' of CO2, termed pCO2. As CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere continue to rise, pCO2 in the surface ocean is expected to increase to double its pre-industrial value by the middle of this century. Coupled with rising temperatures, this increase may lead to a slowdown in the ocean CO2 absorption of CO2, resulting in more CO2 accumulating in the atmosphere and possibly speeding up global warming. A major consequence of increased CO2 levels in the ocean is that surface seawater will become (slightly) more acidic, which could have profound impacts on marine organisms and ecosystems. As a signatory to the Kyoto protocol, the UK has made a legally-binding commitment to reduce carbon emissions by 2012. Part of this commitment requires the UK to track and, if possible, predict changes in regions which naturally absorb CO2 ('natural sinks'). Monitoring changes in surface ocean pCO2 and the exchange of CO2 between the ocean and the atmosphere can provide early warning of changes in the ocean's ability to absorb CO2 and resulting climate changes. Computer models for forecasting changes in ocean processes and ecosystems provide the potential for real-time monitoring and forecasting of CO2 related changes in the ocean. Measurements of pCO2 in the surface ocean are essential for testing the predictions of these models. This proposal describes a 'supply chain' for automated measurement of pCO2 in the surface of the ocean, its processing and its use in providing information to government bodies. Data will be gathered by new pCO2 measurement systems on UK research ships. These will send the measurements in near-real time, via satellite text messages, to the British Oceanographic Data Centre, where they will be automatically processed, quality controlled and archived. The data will then be delivered to the Met Office for use in testing predictions from its ocean models. These models will assist the UK government by providing information on the amount of CO2 taken up by the oceans and the related impacts on global climate, ocean acidity and the health of marine ecosystems.