Evolvability of breeding phenology in birds: predicting the evolutionary consequences of climate change

鸟类繁殖物候的进化性：预测气候变化的进化后果

• 批准号: NE/E017487/1
• 负责人: Ian Owens
• 金额: $ 63.53万
• 依托单位: Imperial College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2007 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FE017487%2F1
• 关键词: Evolvability; breeding; phenology; birds; predicting

There is great scientific interest in monitoring, understanding and predicting the ecological consequences, with a series of high-profile studies having demonstrated shifts in the geographic distribution of species, the stability of populations, and the timing of biological events. To date, however, these studies have typically focussed on the current ecology of populations and have necessarily had to ignore the potential for species to evolve in response to climate change. The overall aim of this study is to understand the extent to which, and the speed with which, populations can be expected to evolve in response to climate change. The study is based on a classic example of the ecological consequences of climate change, namely the association between global warming and the earlier onset of breeding activity in a wild population of European birds. Several recent studies have demonstrated this 'early spring' phenomenon in temperate populations, but as yet there have been relatively few detailed studies of the individual fitness consequences of changes in the timing of breeding or the speed with which populations can be expected to evolve to cope with a changing climate. This project will overcome these shortfalls by combining experimental field manipulations of breeding phenology with a long-term pedigree on a wild populations of a passerine bird. By experimentally advancing and delaying the timing of breeding of individual birds we will (i) reveal the long-term fitness consequences of mismatches between breeding phenology and prey availability, (ii) identify the extent of individual optimization in breeding phenology and synchrony with prey availability, and (iii) test for interactions between breeding date and clutch size. Then, by using our existing genetic pedigree and information on cross-fostering off offspring between nests, we will (iv) estimate the extent to which the ability to cope with mismatches between breeding phenology and prey availability are determined by genetic factors, and (v) estimate the rate at which the population will be able to evolve in response to ongoing environmental change. This project tackles one of NERC's main research priorities, namely predicting the ecological consequences of climate change. The project also investigates factors that determine long-term resilience to environmental change, which are an important part of NERC's focus on the maintenance of biodiversity in complex natural systems.

人们对监测、了解和预测生态后果有着极大的科学兴趣，一系列引人注目的研究表明，物种的地理分布、种群的稳定性和生物事件的时间发生了变化。然而，到目前为止，这些研究通常集中在当前的种群生态学上，而不可避免地忽视了物种为应对气候变化而进化的潜力。这项研究的总体目标是了解在何种程度上，和速度，人口可以预期的演变，以应对气候变化。该研究基于气候变化的生态后果的一个经典例子，即全球变暖与欧洲野生鸟类种群繁殖活动提前发生之间的关联。最近的几项研究已经证明了这种“早春”现象在温带人群，但迄今为止，有相对较少的详细研究的个人健身结果的变化，在繁殖的时间或人口的速度可以预期演变，以科普不断变化的气候。该项目将克服这些不足，结合实验领域的操作育种物候与长期的谱系野生种群的雀形目鸟类。通过实验提前和延迟个体鸟类的繁殖时间，我们将（i）揭示繁殖物候和猎物可用性之间不匹配的长期适应性后果，（ii）确定繁殖物候和与猎物可用性同步的个体优化程度，以及（iii）测试繁殖日期和窝卵数之间的相互作用。然后，通过使用我们现有的遗传谱系和信息的交叉培育过的后代之间的巢，我们将（iv）估计在何种程度上的能力，以科普繁殖物候和猎物的可用性之间的不匹配决定的遗传因素，和（v）估计的速度，人口将能够发展，以应对持续的环境变化。该项目解决了NERC的主要研究重点之一，即预测气候变化的生态后果。该项目还调查了决定对环境变化的长期适应能力的因素，这是NERC关注维持复杂自然系统中生物多样性的重要组成部分。

项目成果

Individual variation in reaction norms but no directional selection in reproductive plasticity of a wild passerine population.

• DOI: 10.1002/ece3.8582
• 发表时间: 2022-03
• 期刊: Ecology and evolution
• 影响因子: 2.6
• 作者: Chik HYJ;Estrada C;Wang Y;Tank P;Lord A;Schroeder J
• 通讯作者: Schroeder J