Evolvability of breeding phenology in birds: predicting the evolutionary consequences of climate change

人们对监测、理解和预测生态后果产生了极大的科学兴趣，一系列备受瞩目的研究表明，物种的地理分布、种群的稳定性和生物事件的发生时间发生了变化。然而，到目前为止，这些研究通常集中在当前的种群生态上，必然会忽视物种进化以应对气候变化的潜力。这项研究的总体目标是了解人口可以预计在多大程度上和以多快的速度进化以应对气候变化。这项研究基于气候变化的生态后果的一个经典例子，即全球变暖与欧洲野生鸟类种群繁殖活动提前开始之间的关联。最近的几项研究已经证明了这种温带种群的早春现象，但迄今为止，关于繁殖时机变化或种群进化以应对气候变化的速度变化对个体健康影响的详细研究相对较少。这个项目将通过将繁殖物候的试验田操作与对一种雀形目鸟类野生种群的长期谱系相结合来克服这些不足。通过实验提前和推迟个体鸟类的繁殖时间，我们将(I)揭示繁殖物候和猎物可获得性之间不匹配的长期适宜性后果，(Ii)确定个体在繁殖物候和与猎物可获得性的同步方面的优化程度，以及(Iii)测试繁殖日期和窝窝大小之间的交互作用。然后，通过利用我们现有的遗传谱系和关于巢间交叉寄养后代的信息，我们将(Iv)估计遗传因素在多大程度上决定了应对繁殖物候和猎物可获得性之间的不匹配的能力，以及(V)估计种群能够随着持续的环境变化而进化的速度。该项目涉及国家环境研究中心的主要研究重点之一，即预测气候变化的生态后果。该项目还调查了决定对环境变化的长期适应能力的因素，这是NERC关注维持复杂自然系统中生物多样性的重要组成部分。

There is great scientific interest in monitoring, understanding and predicting the ecological consequences, with a series of high-profile studies having demonstrated shifts in the geographic distribution of species, the stability of populations, and the timing of biological events. To date, however, these studies have typically focussed on the current ecology of populations and have necessarily had to ignore the potential for species to evolve in response to climate change. The overall aim of this study is to understand the extent to which, and the speed with which, populations can be expected to evolve in response to climate change. The study is based on a classic example of the ecological consequences of climate change, namely the association between global warming and the earlier onset of breeding activity in a wild population of European birds. Several recent studies have demonstrated this 'early spring' phenomenon in temperate populations, but as yet there have been relatively few detailed studies of the individual fitness consequences of changes in the timing of breeding or the speed with which populations can be expected to evolve to cope with a changing climate. This project will overcome these shortfalls by combining experimental field manipulations of breeding phenology with a long-term pedigree on a wild populations of a passerine bird. By experimentally advancing and delaying the timing of breeding of individual birds we will (i) reveal the long-term fitness consequences of mismatches between breeding phenology and prey availability, (ii) identify the extent of individual optimization in breeding phenology and synchrony with prey availability, and (iii) test for interactions between breeding date and clutch size. Then, by using our existing genetic pedigree and information on cross-fostering off offspring between nests, we will (iv) estimate the extent to which the ability to cope with mismatches between breeding phenology and prey availability are determined by genetic factors, and (v) estimate the rate at which the population will be able to evolve in response to ongoing environmental change. This project tackles one of NERC's main research priorities, namely predicting the ecological consequences of climate change. The project also investigates factors that determine long-term resilience to environmental change, which are an important part of NERC's focus on the maintenance of biodiversity in complex natural systems.