Modeling the Effects of the Environment on Enteric Pathogen Dynamics

模拟环境对肠道病原体动态的影响

• 批准号: 8703237
• 负责人: Joseph N. S. Eisenberg
• 金额: $ 57.35万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-01 至 2019-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8703237
• 关键词: Address; Agriculture; Air; Biological Models; Cholera; Cities; Complement; Cryptosporidium; Data; Decontamination; Disease; Ecuador; Enteral; Environment; Epidemiology; Excretory function; Food; Haiti; Hand; Human; Hygiene; Individual; Infection; International; Intervention; Measurable; Mediating; Methods; Modeling; Movement; Norovirus; Pathway interactions; Pattern; Policies; Process; Public Health; Recommendation; Relative (related person); Risk Assessment; Schools; Source; Surface; System; Thailand; Time; United States; Water; Work; Workplace; case-by-case basis; disease transmission; drinking water; enteric pathogen; environmental transport; insight; methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus; microbial; pathogen; public health relevance; respiratory; social; social movement; theories; therapy design; transmission process; water treatment; waterborne

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): There has been an increasing appreciation of the importance of environmental pathways for the human-to-human transmission of respiratory, enteric, and other pathogens. These indirect transmission chains may involve water, food, air, and fomites, all of which provide natural points for intervention. There is a need, therefore, to develop transmission models that explicitly describe pathogen dynamics and the dynamics of human contact with pathogens in these environments. We call these environmental infection transmission system (EITS) models. We propose to develop and examine such models across a range of spatial and temporal scales, as determined by agent survivability in different environments and temporal patterns of excretion and exposure. We focus on enteric pathogens as they: 1) exploit a wide range of environmental scales; 2) there exists extensive human and environmental data; and 3) enteric diseases have major global and domestic public health importance. We propose to build upon our work in the past 10 years applying transmission models to microbial risk assessment that has advanced regulatory policy for the USEPA, and more recently through our work in the Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment (CAMRA). Our analyses have included transmission studies in domestic settings such as Cryptosporidium, MRSA, and norovirus in the United States, as well as international settings such as cholera and diarrheal diseases in Haiti, Thailand, and Ecuador. In our work thus far we have examined distinct types of environmentally mediated transmission on a case-by-case basis. Here we will develop a unified framework integrating environmental transmission across a wide range of temporal and spatial transmission scales. Specifically, we propose the following specific aims: 1) To develop an environmental infection transmission systems (EITS) modeling approach that focuses on long timescales, such as waterborne transmission; 2) To develop an EITS modeling approach that focuses on short timescales, such as fomite transmission; and 3) To develop a framework that integrates these diverse transmission pathways that span across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. As many interventions are environmentally driven (e.g. surface cleaning, drinking water and wastewater treatment) this framework will provide detailed environmental insight and guidance for policy and interventions.

描述（由申请人提供）：越来越多的人认识到环境途径对呼吸道、肠道和其他病原体在人与人之间传播的重要性。这些间接传播链可能涉及水、食物、空气和污染物，所有这些都为干预提供了自然点。因此，有必要开发传播模型，明确描述病原体的动态和人类在这些环境中与病原体接触的动态。我们称之为环境传染传播系统（EITS）模型。我们建议开发和检查这样的模型在一系列的空间和时间尺度，确定代理生存能力在不同的环境和时间模式的排泄和暴露。我们关注肠道病原体，因为它们：1）利用广泛的环境尺度; 2）存在广泛的人类和环境数据; 3）肠道疾病具有重大的全球和国内公共卫生重要性。我们建议在过去10年中将传播模型应用于微生物风险评估的工作基础上，为USEPA制定先进的监管政策，最近通过我们在推进微生物风险评估中心（CAMRA）的工作。我们的分析包括在国内环境中的传播研究，如美国的隐孢子虫，MRSA和诺如病毒，以及国际环境，如海地，泰国和厄瓜多尔的霍乱和霍乱。在我们的工作中，到目前为止，我们已经在个案基础上研究了不同类型的环境介导的传播。在这里，我们将开发一个统一的框架，整合跨广泛的时间和空间传输尺度的环境传输。具体而言，我们提出了以下具体目标：1）开发一个环境感染传播系统（EITS）的建模方法，侧重于长时间尺度，如水媒传播：2）开发一个EITS的建模方法，侧重于短时间尺度，如污染物传播;以及3）开发一个框架，将这些跨越广泛时空尺度的不同传播途径整合起来。由于许多干预措施都是由环境驱动的（例如地表清洁、饮用水和废水处理），该框架将为政策和干预措施提供详细的环境见解和指导。