MIDAS Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics

描述(由申请者提供)：我们建议对哈佛大学公共卫生学院的传染病动力学研究中心(CCDD)进行竞争性更新。根据四年来170多份同行评审出版物的记录以及在外展和教育方面取得的重大成就，我们建议采取多管齐下的方法，将该英才中心的活动延长到下一个资助期。我们将把感染的数学和统计建模方面的专业知识与相关学科结合起来，致力于一系列公共卫生问题的方法学开发和应用。项目I.病原体基因组学和进化开发计算和统计模型，以推断感染的局部和全球传播和聚集、重组引起的抗原变化以及疫苗介导性选择下的进化。项目二.新数据来源新分析方法开发和测试用于解释参与性监测和移动电话数据的统计方法，用于传播动力学模型的参数化和测试，使用水文模型建立疟疾风险图，并发展负控制的统计理论。项目III.考虑到宿主种群中可测量和未测量的异质性提出了各种研究，以评估宿主异质性对不同传播途径感染的模型参数估计的贡献，并创建了包含这种异质性的两个关键来源的模型：病毒干扰和剂量-反应关系。项目IV.了解和控制抗生素耐药性研究淋病、结核病和肺炎球菌感染的耐药性，应用早期项目的方法来了解耐药性的遗传和选择性来源，以及在其流行中观察到的异质性的潜在机制。项目五.公共卫生评估和优化的合作建模建议与公共卫生合作伙伴合作，利用一系列建模方法，解决其工作的两个关键方面--负担/严重程度评估和干预措施的优化。软件开发和共享以及政策研究是我们研究活动的组成部分。在外联和教育方面，我们提出了一套雄心勃勃的倡议，旨在通过管道和招聘，培训下一代模特儿，并让政策、学术界和新闻业的同事参与进来。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): We propose a competing renewal of the MIDAS Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics (CCDD) at Harvard School of Public Health. Building on a four-year record of over 170 peer-reviewed publications and significant achievements in outreaching and education, we propose a multipronged approach to extend the activities of this Center of Excellence into the next funding period. Combining expertise in mathematical and statistical modeling of infection with related disciplines, we will undertake methodologic development and application to a range of public health problems. Project I. Pathogen Genomics and Evolution develops computational and statistical models to infer local and global transmission and clustering of infections, antigenic change by recombination, and evolution under vaccine-mediated selection. Project II. New Analytic Methods for New Data Sources develops and tests statistical approaches for interpreting participatory surveillance and mobile phone data for parameterization and testing of transmission-dynamic models, uses hydrological modeling to build risk maps for malaria, and develops the statistical theory of negative controls. Project III. Accounting for Measured and Unmeasured Heterogeneity in Host Populations proposes a variety of studies to assess the contribution of host heterogeneity to model parameter estimation for infections with different transmission routes and creates models incorporating two key sources of such heterogeneity: virus interference and dose-response relationships. Project IV. Understanding and Controlling Antibiotic Resistance studies drug resistance in gonorrhea, tuberculosis, and pneumococcal infections, applying methods from earlier projects to understand the genetic and selective origins of resistance and the mechanisms underlying observed heterogeneities in its prevalence. Project V. Collaborative Modeling for Assessment and Optimization in Public Health proposes work with public health partners to address two key aspects of their work ~ burden/severity estimation and optimization of interventions - using a range of modeling approaches. Software development and sharing and Policy Studies are integral parts of our research activities. In Outreach and Education we propose an ambitious set of initiatives aimed at pipeline and recruiting, training the next generation of modelers, and engaging colleagues in policy, academia and journalism.