Modeling, Spatial, Statistics

建模、空间、统计

• 批准号: 8796461
• 负责人: Ira M Longini
• 金额: $ 89.62万
• 依托单位: FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 至
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8796461
• 关键词: Bayesian Modeling; Bioterrorism; Cholera; Communicable Diseases; Containment; Coronavirus; Data; Dengue; Development; Disease Outbreaks; Effectiveness; Effectiveness of Interventions; Emerging Communicable Diseases; Epidemic; Influenza; Intervention; Methods; Modeling; Research Project Grants; Resource Allocation; Social Distance; Statistical Methods; Statistical Models; Vaccination; antimicrobial; innovation; mathematical model; novel; programs; response; statistics; transmission process

Scientific Program 5.1 Research Project 1: Modeling, Spatial, Statistics The overall objective of this research project is to develop, validate, and implement mathematical and statistical models for the transmission of naturally occurring infectious diseases and bioterrorism agents. These models will be used to assess the effectiveness and efficacy of various interventions to aid the distribution and allocation of resources in response to infectious disease outbreaks. The specific aims are as follows: 1. To develop or further develop mathematical and statistical models for important infectious disease threats including influenza, cholera, dengue fever, TB, novel coronaviruses, and new emerging infectious diseases. This will involve the development of general models to understand the transsmission of infectious diseases, as well as the development of specific models for each infectious disease studied. 2. To use the epidemic mathematical and statistical models to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions involving surveillance and containment, vaccination, antimicrobials, social distancing, and other control strategies for the infectious diseases in specific aim 1. 3. To use and develop statistical methods to estimate the important parameters and variables from data available for the infectious diseases. These statistical methods will include both novel and innovative likelihood and empirical, hierarchical Bayesian models, as well as MCMC methods

科学计划 5.1研究项目1：建模，空间，统计 该研究项目的总体目标是开发，验证和实施数学和统计 自然发生的传染病和生物恐怖主义制剂的传播模型。这些模型将 用于评估各种干预措施的有效性和功效，以帮助分配和分配 应对传染病爆发的资源。具体目标如下： 1.开发或进一步开发针对重要传染病威胁的数学和统计模型 包括流感、霍乱、登革热、结核病、新型冠状病毒和新出现的传染病。 这将涉及开发通用模型来了解传染病的传播， 以及为所研究的每种传染病建立特定模型。 2.使用流行病数学和统计模型来评估干预措施的有效性， 监测和遏制、疫苗接种、抗菌剂、社交距离和其他控制策略 针对具体目标1中的传染病。 3.使用和发展统计方法，从现有数据中估计重要参数和变量 传染性疾病。这些统计方法将包括新颖和创新的可能性 和经验的，分层贝叶斯模型，以及MCMC方法