Containing Bioterroist and Emerging Infectious Diseases

遏制生物恐怖分子和新出现的传染病

• 批准号: 6888006
• 负责人: Ira M Longini
• 金额: $ 35.18万
• 依托单位: EMORY UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-05-01 至 2005-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6888006
• 关键词: Listeria infections; Poxviridae disease; active immunization; acute disease /disorder; bacteria infection mechanism; bioterrorism /chemical warfare; communicable disease control; communicable disease transmission; computer simulation; cooperative study; emerging infectious disease; host organism interaction; human data; human therapy evaluation; immune response; influenza; lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus; mathematical model; method development; microorganism disease chemotherapy; model design /development; pathologic process; severe acute respiratory syndrome; statistics /biometry; virus infection mechanism

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The overall objective of this research is to develop, validate, and implement mathematical models for the transmission and within-host dynamics of bioterrorism agents or naturally occurring infectious diseases. These models will be used to assess the effectiveness and efficacy of various interventions to aid the distribution and allocation of resources in response to such outbreaks. Specific aim 1 is to develop epidemic simulation models for the transmission of infectious diseases in question: a. to develop stochastic epidemic simulation models for a typical American community; b. to use the epidemic simulation models to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions involving surveillance and containment, vaccination, antimicrobials, closing of key institutions, and other control strategies; c. to develop stochastic optimization methods to find the best intervention strategy, constrained by the resources available; d. to adapt the epidemic simulation models for smallpox, pandemic influenza, SARS, and other possible bioterrorism agents or naturally occurring infectious diseases; e. to use the epidemic simulation models to determine the important parameters for infection transmission and to use this information to design field studies and intervention studies; f. to use and develop statistical methods to estimate the important parameters and variables from data. Specific aim 2 is to develop models of the within-host dynamics of pathogens which cause acute infections in vertebrates: a. to construct exploratory models for the interplay between the pathogen and host immune response; b. to refine, to develop further and to test these models of pathogenesis including the use of existing data on lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) and listeria monocytogenes (LM) infections of mice; c. to use the experience from the specific aim 2.b. to extend the models in the specific aim 2.a. to examine the more challenging acute infections of humans including bioterrorism agents or naturally occurring infectious diseases; d. to model development of resistance under selective pressure by antimicrobial and antiviral treatment and prophylaxis by antimicrobials or vaccination; e. to combine the stochastic epidemic simulation models with models for within-host generation of resistance to examine spread of resistance within the host population.

描述（由申请人提供）：本研究的总体目标是开发，验证和实施生物恐怖主义制剂或自然发生的传染病的传播和宿主内动力学的数学模型。 这些模型将用于评估各种干预措施的有效性和效力，以帮助分配和分配资源，应对此类疫情。 具体目标1是开发有关传染病传播的流行病模拟模型：a.为典型的美国社区开发随机流行病模拟模型; B.使用流行病模拟模型评估干预措施的有效性，包括监测和遏制、疫苗接种、抗菌剂、关闭关键机构和其他控制策略; c.开发随机优化方法，以找到受可用资源约束的最佳干预策略; d.使流行病模拟模型适用于天花、大流行性流感、SARS和其他可能的生物恐怖主义制剂或自然发生的传染病; e.使用流行病模拟模型来确定感染传播的重要参数，并使用这些信息来设计实地研究和干预研究; f.使用和开发统计方法，从数据中估计重要参数和变量。 具体目标2是开发导致脊椎动物急性感染的病原体的宿主内动力学模型：构建病原体和宿主免疫应答之间相互作用的探索性模型; B.改进、进一步开发和测试这些发病机理模型，包括使用关于小鼠的淋巴细胞性脉络丛脑膜炎病毒（LCMV）和单核细胞增生性脑膜炎病毒（LM）感染的现有数据; c.利用具体目标2.b.的经验。在具体目标2.a.中扩展模型。检查更具挑战性的人类急性感染，包括生物恐怖主义制剂或自然发生的传染病; d.通过抗微生物剂和抗病毒治疗以及通过抗微生物剂或疫苗接种的预防来模拟在选择性压力下的抗性发展; e.将随机流行模拟模型与宿主内产生抗性的模型结合起来，以检查宿主种群内抗性的传播。