Adaptive Experimental Methods for Evaluating Computational Models of Cognition

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DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The long-term goal of this program of research is to improve scientific inference in psychological science. The topic is investigated in the context of computational models of cognition, which can be extremely difficult to distinguish experimentally because of their complexity and the extent to which they mimic each other. Statistical methods (goodness-of-fit, Akaike Information Criterion) have been the dominant means of model evaluation and selection, and are applied after data have been collected in an experiment. The current project explores a new approach to improving inference by developing corresponding statistical methods that are applied on the front-end of an experiment, while the experiment is being designed. In this approach, dubbed adaptive design optimization (ADO), an experiment is divided into a series of mini-experiments. The design of each mini-experiment is updated based on performance in the preceding mini-experiment. The choice of design values is dictated by a sophisticated search algorithm that constantly pressures the models of interest to fit more and more challenging data points until one model emerges as superior. The adaptive nature of the methodology ensures the design is optimal throughout the testing session, and thereby maximizes the informativeness of the experimental results. Furthermore, the focus on optimizing the design simultaneously ensures that the experiment is highly efficient (e.g., fewer trials and participants). The three specific aims of the proposal are to (1) develop ADO so that it is applicable to a broad range of problems (e.g., various experimental designs, different modeling goals) in the discipline; (2) improve the ADO algorithm so that it can be used in real-time experiments; (3) develop web-based resources to enable researchers to learn about and take advantage of the methodology. The achievement of these three goals is intended to provide researchers with a new technology that can accelerate scientific discovery.