Predicting the burden of renal disease among liver transplant recipients

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DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Post-liver transplant chronic renal failure (CRF), defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <30 ml/min or end-stage renal disease (ESRD), is one of the major post-transplant co-morbidities among non-renal solid organ transplant recipients associated with increased mortality and high costs. Among all non-renal solid organ transplant recipients, liver transplant (LT) recipients have the second highest incidence of post-LT CRF despite the lower level of immunosuppression by calcineurin inhibitors, compared to heart and lung transplant recipients. The spectrum of renal dysfunction in the end-stage liver disease candidates varies from slight elevation in serum creatinine from pre-existing renal disease to full blown renal failure from hepatorenal syndrome requiring renal replacement therapy (RRT). Although candidates with hepatorenal syndrome usually recover their renal function after LT, the timing of renal recovery is variable. Moreover, the factors associated with renal recovery are not very well elucidated. On the other hand, candidates with pre-existing kidney disease are unlikely to recover their renal function after LT and may demonstrate stable renal function or progression to post-LT CRF. The overarching goal of this proposal is to understand the epidemiology of post- LT CRF among LT recipients. The main hypothesis is that there are other recipient, donor and transplant factors besides serum creatinine that contribute to the burden of post-LT CRF. To test this hypothesis, I have three aims: Aim 1: To develop and validate a model to predict the risk of post-LT CRF among candidates with eGFR e 30ml/min at LT; Aim 1b: To evaluate the contribution of post-LT CRF reflected in post-LT hospitalization rates; Aim 2: To examine the factors predicting renal recovery after LT among candidates with eGFR <30 ml/min or on RRT; Aim 3: To estimate the predicted a) post-LT CRF rates b) renal recovery rates after LT and c) hospitalization rates under the Model for end-stage Liver Disease (MELD), a measure of waitlist mortality and current allocation tool for LT, and alternative waitlist mortality models. I will use national data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) ESRD Program to conduct these studies. The conducive environment at the University of Michigan, didactic coursework from the highly rated School of Public Health, combined with excellent mentoring from experiential mentors, and access to large national clinical (SRTR) and administrative (CMS) databases will provide me with a strong foundation and aid me in achieving my long term career goal to become an independent, interdisciplinary, clinical investigator and leader in the field of organ transplantation.