Mexico-U.S. Migration during the Great Recession, 2005-2012

描述(由申请者提供)：近年来，墨西哥移民到美国的速度急剧下降。墨西哥成年人的年国际移民率从2005年的每千名居民15.6名移民下降到2011年的几乎每千名居民4名。如果持续下去，这种低移民率可能会对美国人口的种族和民族构成产生深远影响。鉴于移民和土著人口在健康和社会福利方面的差距，较低的移民率也可能对未来几年的公共政策产生重要影响。然而，到目前为止，我们还不完全了解墨西哥-美国移民减少的原因，或者更有可能移民的个人特征的相关变化。以前的研究在很大程度上依赖于对移徙趋势的描述性分析，因此无法系统地检验相互矛盾的解释。在这项研究中，我将使用墨西哥国家职业和就业调查(Encuesta Nacional de Ocupaci�n y Empleo，ENOE)的数据，这是一项具有全国代表性的小组调查，每季度对墨西哥家庭进行一次调查，以估计2005年至2012年墨西哥-美国移民人数的下降。我还将测试经济增长放缓和美国经济不同部门劳动力需求减少对来自墨西哥的国际移民速度的影响。最后，我会 审查墨西哥移民在移民迅速减少期间选择性的变化。特别是，我将考虑美国不断变化的经济状况是否导致国际移民教育选择性的转变。了解来自墨西哥的移民减少的原因可能会为我们指明未来趋势的方向。这一下降主要是由于美国经济衰退导致移民就业前景变差，那么随着经济复苏，墨西哥移民预计将再次增加。相反，如果下降是由于墨西哥经济的更永久性变化或不易逆转的人口结构变化(如生育率变化)，那么预计移民率将保持在较低水平。估计移民的性别、年龄和教育选择性的变化很重要，因为这种变化将影响在美国出生的外国人口的相对构成，可能会产生长期的影响 对劳动力市场和健康差距的影响。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The rate of Mexican migration to the United States has declined precipitously in recent years. From 15.6 migrants per thousand residents in 2005, the annual international migration rate for Mexican adults dropped to almost 4 per thousand by 2011. If sustained, this low migration rate is likely to have a profound effect on the ethnic and national-origin composition of the U.S. population. Given the disparities in health and social wellbeing between the immigrant and native populations, the lower migration rate may also have important implications for public policy in the years to come. Yet so far we do not fully understand the origins of the decline in Mexico-U.S. migration, or the associated changes in the characteristics of individuals that are more likely to migrate. Previous studies rely largely on a descriptive analysis of migration trends and are therefore unable to systematically test competing explanations against each other. In this study I will use data from the Mexican National Occupation and Employment Survey (Encuesta Nacional de Ocupaci�n y Empleo, ENOE), a nationally-representative panel survey of Mexican households conducted on a quarterly basis, to estimate the decline in Mexico-U.S. migration from 2005 to 2012. I will also test the effect that the slowdown in economic growth and reduction in labor demand in different sectors of the U.S. economy had on the rate of international migration from Mexico. Finally, I will examine changes in the selectivity of Mexican migrants during the period of rapidly declining migration. In particular, I will consider whether changing economic conditions in the U.S. led to shifts in the educational selectivity of international migrants. Understanding the causal origins f the decline in migration from Mexico may give us an indication of the direction of future trends. I the decline is primarily a result of worse employment prospects for migrants as a consequence of the U.S. recession, then Mexican migration may be expected to pick up again as the economy recovers. If, on the contrary, the decline is due to more permanent changes in the Mexican economy or demographic changes that are not easily reversible (such as fertility changes), then the migration rate may be expected to remain low. Estimating the changes in the gender, age and educational selectivity of migrants is important because such changes will affect the relative composition of the foreign-born population in the U.S., with possible long-term implications for labor markets and health disparities.