Mexico-U.S. Migration during the Great Recession, 2005-2012

描述（由申请人提供）：近年来，墨西哥移民到美国的比率急剧下降。从2005年的每千名居民中有15.6名移民，到2011年，墨西哥成年人每年的国际移民率下降到每千名居民中有4人。如果这种低移民率持续下去，可能会对美国人口的种族和国籍构成产生深远的影响。鉴于移民人口与本地人口在健康和社会福利方面的差异，较低的移徙率也可能对今后几年的公共政策产生重要影响。然而，到目前为止，我们还没有完全了解美墨关系衰退的根源。迁移，或更有可能迁移的个体特征的相关变化。以前的研究主要依赖于对移民趋势的描述性分析，因此无法系统地检验相互矛盾的解释。在这项研究中，我将使用墨西哥国家职业和就业调查（Encuesta Nacional de Ocupaci y Empleo， ENOE）的数据，这是一项对墨西哥家庭进行的全国代表性小组调查，每季度进行一次，以估计墨西哥-美国的下降。从2005年到2012年的移民。我还将测试经济增长放缓和美国经济不同部门劳动力需求减少对墨西哥国际移民率的影响。最后，我将

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The rate of Mexican migration to the United States has declined precipitously in recent years. From 15.6 migrants per thousand residents in 2005, the annual international migration rate for Mexican adults dropped to almost 4 per thousand by 2011. If sustained, this low migration rate is likely to have a profound effect on the ethnic and national-origin composition of the U.S. population. Given the disparities in health and social wellbeing between the immigrant and native populations, the lower migration rate may also have important implications for public policy in the years to come. Yet so far we do not fully understand the origins of the decline in Mexico-U.S. migration, or the associated changes in the characteristics of individuals that are more likely to migrate. Previous studies rely largely on a descriptive analysis of migration trends and are therefore unable to systematically test competing explanations against each other. In this study I will use data from the Mexican National Occupation and Employment Survey (Encuesta Nacional de Ocupaci�n y Empleo, ENOE), a nationally-representative panel survey of Mexican households conducted on a quarterly basis, to estimate the decline in Mexico-U.S. migration from 2005 to 2012. I will also test the effect that the slowdown in economic growth and reduction in labor demand in different sectors of the U.S. economy had on the rate of international migration from Mexico. Finally, I will examine changes in the selectivity of Mexican migrants during the period of rapidly declining migration. In particular, I will consider whether changing economic conditions in the U.S. led to shifts in the educational selectivity of international migrants. Understanding the causal origins f the decline in migration from Mexico may give us an indication of the direction of future trends. I the decline is primarily a result of worse employment prospects for migrants as a consequence of the U.S. recession, then Mexican migration may be expected to pick up again as the economy recovers. If, on the contrary, the decline is due to more permanent changes in the Mexican economy or demographic changes that are not easily reversible (such as fertility changes), then the migration rate may be expected to remain low. Estimating the changes in the gender, age and educational selectivity of migrants is important because such changes will affect the relative composition of the foreign-born population in the U.S., with possible long-term implications for labor markets and health disparities.