Mexico-U.S. Migration during the Great Recession, 2005-2012

墨西哥-美国

• 批准号: 8748302
• 负责人: ANDRES VILLARREAL
• 金额: $ 7.45万
• 依托单位: UNIV OF MARYLAND, COLLEGE PARK
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-12 至 2016-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8748302
• 关键词: Adult; Affect; Age; Agriculture; American; Characteristics; Community Surveys; Data; Data Set; Data Sources; Drops; Economic Conditions; Economics; Education; Educational Background; Employment; Employment Status; Fertility; Frequencies; Future; Gender; Growth; Health; Household; Immigrant; Immigration; Individual; International; International Migrations; Marital Status; Marketing; Measures; Mexican; Mexico; Modeling; National origin; Nomads; Occupations; Population; Public Policy; Relative (related person); Research; Source; Statistical Models; Subgroup; Surveys; Testing; Time; United States; Urbanization; Woman; base; health disparity; men; migration; multilevel analysis; population survey; public health relevance; social; trend

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The rate of Mexican migration to the United States has declined precipitously in recent years. From 15.6 migrants per thousand residents in 2005, the annual international migration rate for Mexican adults dropped to almost 4 per thousand by 2011. If sustained, this low migration rate is likely to have a profound effect on the ethnic and national-origin composition of the U.S. population. Given the disparities in health and social wellbeing between the immigrant and native populations, the lower migration rate may also have important implications for public policy in the years to come. Yet so far we do not fully understand the origins of the decline in Mexico-U.S. migration, or the associated changes in the characteristics of individuals that are more likely to migrate. Previous studies rely largely on a descriptive analysis of migration trends and are therefore unable to systematically test competing explanations against each other. In this study I will use data from the Mexican National Occupation and Employment Survey (Encuesta Nacional de Ocupaci¿n y Empleo, ENOE), a nationally-representative panel survey of Mexican households conducted on a quarterly basis, to estimate the decline in Mexico-U.S. migration from 2005 to 2012. I will also test the effect that the slowdown in economic growth and reduction in labor demand in different sectors of the U.S. economy had on the rate of international migration from Mexico. Finally, I will examine changes in the selectivity of Mexican migrants during the period of rapidly declining migration. In particular, I will consider whether changing economic conditions in the U.S. led to shifts in the educational selectivity of international migrants. Understanding the causal origins f the decline in migration from Mexico may give us an indication of the direction of future trends. I the decline is primarily a result of worse employment prospects for migrants as a consequence of the U.S. recession, then Mexican migration may be expected to pick up again as the economy recovers. If, on the contrary, the decline is due to more permanent changes in the Mexican economy or demographic changes that are not easily reversible (such as fertility changes), then the migration rate may be expected to remain low. Estimating the changes in the gender, age and educational selectivity of migrants is important because such changes will affect the relative composition of the foreign-born population in the U.S., with possible long-term implications for labor markets and health disparities.

描述（由申请人提供）：墨西哥移民到美国的速度近年来急剧下降。2005年，墨西哥成年人的年国际移徙率为每千名居民15.6名移徙者，到2011年下降到近每千名居民4名移徙者。如果持续下去，这种低移民率可能会对美国人口的种族和民族构成产生深远影响。鉴于移民和本地人口在健康和社会福利方面的差异，较低的移民率也可能对今后几年的公共政策产生重要影响。然而，到目前为止，我们还不完全了解墨西哥-美国移民减少的原因，或者更有可能移民的个人特征的相关变化。以前的研究主要依赖于对移民趋势的描述性分析，因此无法系统地测试相互竞争的解释。 在这项研究中，我将使用墨西哥全国职业和就业调查（Encuesta Nacional de Ocupaci <$n y Empleo，ENOE）的数据，这是一项对墨西哥家庭进行的具有全国代表性的季度小组调查，以估计2005年至2012年墨西哥-美国移民的下降。我还将测试经济增长放缓和美国经济不同部门劳动力需求减少对墨西哥国际移民率的影响。最后要 研究在墨西哥移民的选择性在迅速下降的移民期间的变化。特别是，我将考虑美国经济状况的变化是否导致国际移民的教育选择性发生变化。 了解墨西哥移民减少的原因可能会给我们一个未来趋势方向的指示。这一下降主要是由于美国经济衰退导致移民就业前景恶化，随着经济复苏，墨西哥移民人数可能会再次增加。相反，如果这种下降是由于墨西哥经济的长期变化或不容易逆转的人口变化（如生育率变化），那么移民率可能会保持在低水平。估计移民的性别、年龄和教育选择性的变化很重要，因为这些变化将影响美国外国出生人口的相对构成，可能的长期 对劳动力市场和健康差距的影响。