Uncovering the Mechanisms Driving Seasonal Polio Incidence: A Modeling Approach Towards Endgame Strategies

揭示季节性脊髓灰质炎发病率的机制：终局策略的建模方法

• 批准号: 9912092
• 负责人: Kevin Michael Bakker
• 金额: $ 2.37万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-05-01 至 2020-08-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9912092
• 关键词: Address; Afghanistan; Africa; African; Americas; Asia; Automobile Driving; Award; Big Data; Blood Circulation; Clinical; Communicable Diseases; Country; Data; Data Set; Demographic Factors; Demography; Diagnosis; Disease Outbreaks; Ebola; Effectiveness; Environmental Risk Factor; Epidemiologist; Epidemiology; Europe; European; Far East; Fellowship; Geography; HIV; Heterogeneity; Human poliovirus; Humidity; Immunization; Immunize; Incidence; Individual; Infection; Influenza; Knowledge; Link; Location; Mathematics; Methods; Middle East; Modeling; Modernization; Monitor; Nigeria; Oral Poliovirus Vaccine; Pakistan; Pattern; Play; Poliomyelitis; Poliovirus Vaccines; Positioning Attribute; Precipitation; Reporting; Role; Science; Sewage; South America; South American; Statistical Data Interpretation; Techniques; Temperature; Testing; Time; Training; Uncertainty; United States; Vaccinated; Vaccination; Vaccines; Variant; Work; career; improved; infectious disease model; predictive modeling; social; social factors; transmission process

Abstract Wild poliovirus (WPV), which is known to occur seasonally, is on the path towards eradication but continues to circulate in specific regions of the world. The Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV) can indirectly immunize unvaccinated individuals through the seasonal shedding of the vaccine. The seasonal timing of WPV transmission and OPV shedding occur synchronously. Using historical global datasets of reported WPV cases, and state-of-the-art modeling techniques, this work will examine three open questions regarding polio epidemiology: (I) does spatial variation exist in the seasonal timing of WPV outbreaks?, (II) what mechanism(s) are associated with this seasonality?, and (III) how can we improve the global monitoring of polio and expedite final eradication? I take advantage of a recently digitized, spatially resolved, historical dataset of reported WPV infections spanning the 20th century in the United States to examine these questions. I will also include 20th century WPV case data from various African, South American, Middle Eastern, and European countries once the U.S. models are parameterized. The results of this work will diagnose which environmental, demographic, or social factors are most strongly tied to seasonal WPV outbreaks. Understanding when and where a WPV outbreak is most likely to occur and when OPV shedding is at its maximum will allow immunization campaigns to optimize OPV coverage at the local level, and identify the optimal time of year to increase monitoring efforts for WPV. Following WPV eradication, this work can be used towards timing mop-up immunization campaigns, and assist in the monitoring efforts for vaccine-derived polio (cVDPV) strains.

抽象的 已知季节性发生的野生脊髓灰质炎病毒（WPV）正在根除途中，但 继续在世界的特定地区循环。口服脊髓灰质炎疫苗（OPV）可以间接免疫 通过疫苗的季节性脱落，未接种疫苗的人。 WPV的季节性时机 传输和OPV脱落同步发生。使用报告的WPV案例的历史全球数据集， 和最先进的建模技术，这项工作将研究有关脊髓灰质炎的三个开放问题 流行病学：（i）在WPV暴发的季节性时机中存在空间变化？，（ii）什么机制 与这种季节性有关吗？ 最后根除？我利用了最近数字化的，空间解决的，已报告的WPV的历史数据集 在美国，跨越20世纪的感染来检查这些问题。我还将包括20号 来自非洲，南美，中东和欧洲国家的世纪WPV案例数据一次 美国模型被参数化。这项工作的结果将诊断出哪些环境，人群， 或社会因素与季节性WPV暴发最密切相关。了解WPV何时何地 爆发最有可能发生，当OPV脱落达到其最大爆发时，会允许免疫运动 在本地优化OPV覆盖范围，并确定一年中最佳的时间以增加监视工作 对于WPV。根除WPV之后，这项工作可用于定时进行轻带免疫运动， 并协助监测疫苗衍生的脊髓灰质炎（CVDPV）菌株的监测工作。